Those who do not believe will never believe

Author: Liu Jiaolian

Tips:

BTC rose slightly above 84k over the weekend. Today, on March 23, Jiaolian's internal reference "Week 11: Market sideways and low-level shocks, divergent views on bull and bear" mentioned that the first quarter private board meeting was held in the afternoon. I was supposed to write some introductions and outlines for the speech in the internal reference in advance, but I was in a hurry and forgot about it. So I will make a brief summary here after the meeting to make up for it.

At this meeting, Jiaolian's keynote speech mainly shared the review of the market development in the past period of time and the interpretation of the situation. The focus is on reviewing the events from the end-of-year private board meeting in the fourth quarter of last year to the present, and discussing the recovery process of this round of bull market since the end of 2022, as well as the similarities and differences between this cycle and the previous cycles.

The teaching chain starts from the changes in the global geopolitical situation, then extends to the macroeconomic cycle, and then uses the above two layers as the macro background of the crypto market to enter the analysis of the crypto market cycle. First, we will deeply explore BTC, which drives the bull and bear cycles, talk about market differences and look forward to the future market. Combined with the year-end research report at the end of 2024, we will analyze three bull market development models, and point out the singularity turning point and phase change since this cycle, as well as the cycle that may rhyme with it from the rhythm of the bull market. From this, it naturally extends to the analysis of the driving factors of altcoins including ETH, UNI, SOL, etc., the logic behind the market rhythm, and the outlook for the next cycle of this cycle, etc.

During the 2-hour impromptu sharing, Jiaolian still remembers talking about the ordinary retail investors in this crypto market, which is as cruel as the dark forest, the way to win investment may only be to rely on the cognition that is ahead of the market.

What is the cognition that is ahead of the market? I happened to see a real case after the meeting.

The message of this reader in the screenshot below was not selected by Jiaolian because of the vulgar language. The message was commented on last year, July 3, 2024. Which article was commented on? It was an earlier article-the Jiaolian article on March 16, 2024 "BTC may not have a long-term decline basis at this stage".

Now it is the end of March 2025, and we can look back at the timeline:

On March 16, 2024, Jiaolian pointed out in an article, "We are expected to see 10w+ BTC by the end of this year."

On July 3, 2024, a reader commented, "100,000 by the end of this year, you are talking nonsense!"

On December 5, 2024, BTC closed at 101,000 dollars.

On December 17, 2024, BTC hit a new high of $108,000 this year and closed at $106,000.

This example is not to say that Jiaolian is always right, but to illustrate what is the market's lagging cognition, what is the market's leading cognition, and what is the willingness and courage to believe in this cognition.

Of course, as Jiaolian talked about in the sharing, cognition alone is not enough to win.

On the basis of correct and leading cognition, can you believe it, and whether you believe it has been implemented into action. Also, do you have enough patience and the strength to maintain patience to wait until time finally confirms the initial cognition and vision.