Trump Threatens to Fire Powell If He Doesn't Leave on Time; Polymarket Prices Warsh Confirmation at 43% Before May 15

Key Takeaways President Trump stated in a Fox News interview that he will fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he does not leave office on time, adding he has been "holding back" from firing himTrump indicated the DOJ investigation into Powell's handling of a Fed renovation project will continue, removing a key condition Powell had set for his voluntary departurePowell's chair term expires in May, but his governor term runs until 2028; Powell has said he will not resign until the DOJ investigation is "truly and thoroughly over"Treasury Secretary Bessant acknowledged uncertainty over whether Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will be confirmed before May 16Polymarket prices the probability of Warsh being confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15 at 43% President Trump escalated his confrontation with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, stating in a Fox News interview that he would fire Powell if he fails to leave office on time and signaling that the Justice Department investigation into Powell will not be dropped. "If he doesn't leave on time, I have to fire him. I've been holding back from firing him. I want to fire him, but I hate controversy. I hope there's no controversy. But he will be fired," Trump said. A Standoff Over Departure Terms The remarks sharpen a standoff that has been building around the Fed leadership transition. Powell's term as chair expires in May, but his term as a Federal Reserve governor runs until 2028. Powell has previously stated he intends to serve as interim chair if a confirmed successor is not in place by the time his chair term ends -- and has refused to resign from his governorship until the DOJ investigation into a Fed building renovation project is "truly and thoroughly over." Trump's comments close off a potential off-ramp. By indicating there are no plans to end the DOJ investigation -- stating flatly "it has to be done" -- Trump removes the condition Powell set for a voluntary exit, making a forced removal or prolonged standoff increasingly likely. Warsh Confirmation Timeline Uncertain Adding to the uncertainty, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant acknowledged Tuesday that it remains unclear whether Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will be confirmed before May 16, while expressing hope that "everyone will work together to get Warsh into the Federal Reserve in May." Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing is scheduled for April 21. Polymarket currently prices the probability of Warsh being officially confirmed as Fed Chair before May 15 at 43%, reflecting meaningful uncertainty around the timeline even as the hearing approaches.