Polymarket Predicts Hormuz Strait Normalization by May 31

The probability of the Hormuz Strait returning to normal by May 31 has increased to 68%, according to Odaily. This marks a 9% rise over the past 24 hours on Polymarket. The event contract stipulates that if the IMF Portwatch reports a seven-day moving average of ship arrivals at the Hormuz Strait equal to or above 60 on any date from market creation until May 31, 2026, the market will resolve as 'Yes.' Otherwise, it will resolve as 'No.' The daily count includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, excluding those not reported by the IMF Portwatch. U.S. Vice President Vance is scheduled to visit Pakistan on Tuesday for talks regarding Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump, in a recent phone interview, expressed confidence in potential discussions in Pakistan, stating that Iran 'will negotiate.' He warned of unprecedented issues if negotiations do not occur and expressed hope for a 'fair deal,' emphasizing that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Trump defended military actions against Iran, stating they were necessary and that the situation would eventually be resolved.