投资者似乎认为特朗普关税“雷声大雨点小”，但美股并非对关税或其他政策提议带来的进一步冲击免疫，特朗普可能会因为股市反应相对平静而更加大胆地试探极端做法。
全球贸易战似乎没有吓到华尔街。
当地时间周四（2月13日），美国总统特朗普宣布将探索如何对美国的贸易伙伴征收对等关税，这是可能导致他发起的全球贸易战逐渐升级的又一个重大因素。
然而，标普500指数当日收涨1%，至6110点，接近1月23日创下的6118.71点历史高点。道琼斯工业平均指数收涨0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数收涨1.5%。
投资顾问公司Villere & Co.合伙人兼投资组合经理乔治·杨(George Young)评论说，投资者似乎认为关税“雷声大雨点小”。
股市之所以上涨，是因为这项行政令没有像投资者和外国领导人担心的那样立即导致征收关税，此外，在此之前，其他与关税相关的行动均被认为不像最初提出的那么严重。
本周早些时候，特朗普宣布对所有进口到美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。2月早些时候，特朗普宣布对加拿大和墨西哥商品征收25%的关税，对中国商品加征10%的关税。在加拿大和墨西哥领导人承诺采取措施加强边境执法并打击毒品贩运之后，特朗普很快按下了“暂停键”。
但杨认为，股市的上涨并不意味着市场对关税措施或其他政策提议带来的进一步冲击已经免疫。
他说：“我们知道这已经成了一个新常态，股市并没有摆脱关税问题的困扰，而是在一点点地吸收它，同时等待看看究竟什么样的政策会被执行。”
的确，虽然股市多头在雀跃，但关税问题远未化解。白宫高级官员告诉记者，对等关税可能会在几周或几个月内生效，美国政府将首先审查对美贸易顺差最大的国家。
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席北美经济学家保罗·阿什沃思(Paul Ashworth)指出，特朗普政府似乎已经放弃了对进口商品征收10%到20%普遍关税的呼吁，但官员们为评估新关税而制定的广泛标准可能会导致平均关税和美国消费者价格出现更大的上涨。
Loomis, Sayles & Company投资组合经理马特·伊根(Matt Eagan)认为，关税威胁是特朗普议程中嵌入的“许多悖论”之一，这些悖论很难解开，可能会导致股市时不时出现剧烈波动。
伊根在研报中写道，“延长减税或许可以刺激消费，但也会导致财政赤字恶化；移民管制或许可以收紧劳动力市场，但也会导致工资上涨；关税可能引发贸易战，同时抑制需求和提高价格。我们认为，投资者应该透过噪音关注特朗普的目标和制约他的因素，他的行动或许是‘雷声大雨点小’，但我们建议投资者不要产生自满情绪。”
地缘政治风险咨询公司Arbroath Group的执行合伙人克里斯托弗·斯玛特(Christopher Smart)警告指出，投资者的自满情绪可能会成为一个危险的反馈循环的一部分。
斯玛特说：“很难知道最终实施的关税政策有哪些，或者税率会有多高，但可以肯定的是，很多关税政策会生效，与此同时，由于目前为止投资者的反应相对平静，特朗普可能会更加大胆地试探极端做法。”
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