Fed Rate Decision: Low Probability of March Rate Cut, CME Data Shows

The CME's FedWatch tool indicates a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, with a 97.4% chance of maintaining the current rate. According to Jin10, the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April stands at 14.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%. Additionally, there is a 0.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by April. Looking ahead to June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut increases to 37.1%.