Rabobank Strategist Predicts Fewer Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Concerns

Rabobank's senior U.S. strategist, Philip Marey, has indicated that despite upward revisions in inflation and growth expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still anticipates a single rate cut in 2026. According to Jin10, this suggests that the FOMC plans to overlook the temporary rise in energy prices. Marey notes that the FOMC's muted response to the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict has led Rabobank to revise its forecast, now expecting the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts in September and December, down from the previously anticipated three cuts. The bank believes that once Walsh becomes the new chair, he will attempt to persuade the committee to conduct more than one rate cut. However, Rabobank warns that further escalation of the Iran conflict could lead to a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts in 2026.