Key TakeawaysBitcoin rebounded to around $103,900, up 1% in early Wednesday trading after testing the $99,000 support level.Ether climbed 2% to $3,435 following a steep 20% slide over the previous 48 hours.The CoinDesk 20 Index rose 2.2% since midnight UTC, though altcoins remain broadly lower.Privacy tokens like Monero (XMR) continue to outperform, rising 7% amid broader market weakness.Bitcoin Holds Above $103K After Two-Day Sell-OffAfter a sharp sell-off earlier this week, the crypto market is showing tentative signs of stabilization. Bitcoin (BTC) recovered to $103,876, rising roughly 1% since midnight UTC, after briefly dipping below $100,000 — its lowest level since June. Analysts note that BTC must continue to hold the $99,000 support zone to avoid renewed downside pressure.Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) bounced 2% to $3,435, regaining some ground after its steepest two-day decline in three months. Despite the rebound, sentiment remains fragile, and traders are watching how the strengthening US dollar might affect risk assets in the days ahead.Altcoins Still Lag as “Mini Altcoin Season” FadesThe broader altcoin market continues to underperform Bitcoin, with several major tokens erasing gains from earlier this year. The average crypto Relative Strength Index (RSI) now stands at 38, indicating oversold conditions.Despite widespread weakness, privacy tokens remain a notable exception. Monero (XMR) rose 7% on Wednesday, extending a month-long uptrend that has seen it outperform most large-cap peers. In contrast, Decred (DCR) and Zcash (ZEC) cooled off slightly but remain higher on a 30-day basis.Derivatives Market Shows Caution as Leverage DeclinesIn the derivatives market, traders are showing caution after recent volatility. Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures fell from $26 billion to $25.3 billion, reflecting reduced leverage despite Bitcoin’s higher year-over-year price.The three-month annualized basis remains subdued around 3–4%, signaling limited appeal in the basis trade. Funding rates across major exchanges are low (4–9% annualized), underscoring a lack of strong directional conviction.Bitcoin options data show elevated implied volatility (IV) across all expiries, suggesting traders expect heightened price movement in the near term. The 24-hour put-call ratio stands at 58–42 in favor of calls, signaling a mild bullish bias among options traders.Liquidations Ease But Market Remains SensitiveRecent price swings were amplified by leveraged unwinds, with $1.7 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours — 76% from long positions. Ether (ETH) led losses with $572 million liquidated.Average long liquidations over the past two days totaled $1 billion, significantly above the seven-day average of $620 million, confirming forced selling as a major driver of recent volatility. Analysts note that near-term resistance for Bitcoin sits at $102,500, where $124 million in potential liquidations could trigger renewed pressure.Relief Rally or Prolonged Consolidation?Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can sustain its rebound above $103,000, with $99,000 and $3,100 remaining key support levels for BTC and ETH respectively. If these levels hold, a short-term bounce could extend across the market.However, continued dollar strength and cautious derivatives positioning may limit upside momentum. Altcoins remain vulnerable to further declines due to low liquidity and skewed leverage structures, though deeply oversold conditions suggest a possible relief rally ahead.
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