Federal Reserve Faces Uncertainty Ahead of December Meeting

According to Odaily, the Financial Times has analyzed that the minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting will be released next Thursday morning, UTC+8. Investors are currently experiencing increased uncertainty regarding the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Last month, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4%. However, investors hoping for a signal from Chairman Jerome Powell about another rate cut in December were disappointed. Before the October meeting, the market had fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut for December, but Powell's statement that further rate cuts by the end of the year were not a certainty quickly reshaped market expectations. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins further questioned the likelihood of a rate cut next month, emphasizing that the threshold for additional easing in the near term is relatively high. The lack of data will be a major obstacle for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. The 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which ended this week, halted the release of key labor market and inflation data, making it difficult for investors to assess the true health of the world's largest economy. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted in a client report that the absence of data and the delayed release of employment market indicators mean that the Federal Reserve will face an information gap when making decisions at the December meeting.