Bitcoin's Current Market Dynamics Differ from 2022, Analyst Says

According to BlockBeats, Garrett Jin, an agent for the 'BTC OG Insider Whale,' recently shared insights on social media, addressing comparisons between the current Bitcoin price trends and those of 2022. While some short-term price patterns may appear similar, Jin argues that such comparisons are unfounded when considering the long-term picture. Jin explains that the macroeconomic environment now is vastly different from that of 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the primary focus of capital was risk aversion, with Bitcoin exhibiting a distribution pattern typical of a tightening cycle. Currently, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, indicating the emergence of a new upward trend. During 2021–2022, Bitcoin displayed a weekly M-top structure, often associated with long-term cycle peaks that suppress prices for extended periods. Presently, Bitcoin is breaking out of a weekly ascending channel. From a probabilistic standpoint, the current situation resembles a bear trap before a rebound to the channel. Although a bear market cannot be entirely ruled out, it is important to note that the $80,850/$62,000 range has undergone significant consolidation and turnover. This previous digestion of positions offers a better risk-reward ratio for bullish positions, with upward potential outweighing downside risks. For a bear market to resume, new inflation shocks or geopolitical crises on the scale of 2022 would be necessary, along with central banks resuming rate hikes or quantitative tightening of balance sheets. Additionally, a decisive and sustained drop below $80,850 would be required. Until these conditions are met, declaring a structural bear market is premature and more speculative than analytical. The most significant difference between Bitcoin investors now (early 2026) and in 2022 is the shift from retail-driven, high-leverage speculation to institutionally driven, structurally long-term holdings. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a typical 'crypto-native bear market' driven by retail panic selling and cascading leverage liquidations. Today, Bitcoin has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.