Ethereum's Potential Breakout Mirrors 2021 Rally Amid Global Liquidity Trends

Ether (ETH) is displaying a macroeconomic pattern reminiscent of the conditions that led to a significant rally in 2021. According to Cointelegraph, an analyst has identified a recurring sequence that connects global liquidity, U.S. small-cap equities, and Ether’s price, suggesting a similar impact could occur for the altcoin. In 2021, Ethereum experienced a 226% surge after a crucial global liquidity threshold was reached. Currently, ETH accumulation addresses are showing a rising realized price near $2,700, reinforcing structural support. The setup driven by global liquidity mirrors the 2021 breakout for ETH. Crypto analyst Sykodelic has highlighted a recurring pattern that links global liquidity, the Russell 2000 index, and Ethereum’s potential breakout. The sequence involves three steps: a breakout in global liquidity, followed by a breakout in the Russell 2000, and then a delayed breakout in Ether. On the current monthly chart, this sequence has reappeared. Sykodelic noted that global liquidity has already broken out, with the Russell 2000 following suit. Historically, Ether lags this move, typically breaking out several weeks later. In 2021, ETH began its major rally approximately 119 days after the Russell confirmed its breakout, suggesting a potential breakout for ETH in March 2026. The monthly candle on the Russell is closely matching the prior cycle, indicating a similar risk-on regime. The last time these indicators aligned, Ethereum surged 226% between March 2021 and November 2021. This supports the view that liquidity conditions, rather than short-term technical indicators, could establish the long-term trend for high-beta assets like ETH. Max, the CEO of BecauseBitcoin, noted on X that the Russell 2000 has historically led Ethereum into price discovery phases. With the Russell 2000 reaching a new all-time high at 2,738 on Thursday, the analyst suggested that this leadership could again favor upside expansion for ETH in the coming weeks if the correlations hold. Onchain data also indicates continued accumulation. CryptoQuant data shows that the realized price of ETH accumulation addresses is rising and currently sits near $2,720. The realized price of accumulation addresses has historically acted as strong support for long-term holders and has not been broken in prior drawdowns. The proximity of the realized price to the spot suggests accumulation remains active, even during volatility. If ETH revisits this zone, analysts estimate downside could be limited to roughly 7%, placing a potential local bottom near $2,720. This level also aligns with external liquidity zones, increasing the likelihood of a trend response if tested.