Bitcoin's Historical Patterns Suggest Potential Price Decline

Bitcoin's historical 100-week simple moving average (SMA) has consistently served as a significant macro support level, according to PANews. Since 2015, whenever Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-week SMA, it has typically struggled to recover quickly and has often dropped further to the 200-week SMA. This process is usually accompanied by a substantial correction of 45% to 58%, lasting approximately 30 to 50 days. Past cycles have shown similar patterns: In December 2014, after falling below the 100-week SMA, Bitcoin's price dropped by 55%, taking about 35 days to reach the 200-week SMA. In November 2018, following a weekly close below the 100-week SMA, the price declined by 45% over approximately 28 days. In March 2020, during the pandemic-induced crash, Bitcoin fell from the 100-week to the 200-week SMA within just one week, experiencing a 47% correction. In May 2022, after breaching the 100-week SMA, Bitcoin's price decreased by 58%, taking around 49 days. As of last week, Bitcoin has once again closed below the 100-week SMA. If historical patterns repeat, a correction of around 50% could occur, with the target price range expected to be between $56,000 and $50,000, potentially happening between March and April.