Investigation Reveals Profitable Bets on Geopolitical Events in Prediction Markets

On-chain analysis has uncovered that six wallets collectively earned $1.2 million on Polymarket by betting on a February 28 U.S. strike on Iran. According to NS3.AI, investigators have connected several of these wallets into a cluster that has consistently profited from U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and other geopolitical events. This discovery has sparked a separate Israeli indictment of two alleged insider bettors, intensifying the debate over whether prediction markets facilitate insider trading rather than serving as neutral platforms for information aggregation.