Morgan Stanley Adjusts UK Rate Cut Predictions Amid Energy Supply Concerns

Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica has indicated that if disruptions in global energy supply are resolved soon, the Bank of England may cut interest rates in April. According to Jin10, the ongoing Middle East conflict and rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, leading the market to lower expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England in March. Data from LSEG shows that the probability of a rate cut in March is currently at 15%, while the likelihood for April stands at 36%. Previously, Morgan Stanley had forecasted rate cuts in March, July, and November, but this has been adjusted to April, November, and February of the following year, assuming that energy supply disruptions do not persist for an extended period.