Japan's Inflation Outlook Complicates BOJ Rate Decision, ING Says

Japan's March CPI exceeded expectations, and inflation is expected to accelerate further, complicating the Bank of Japan's rate decision on Tuesday, according to Jin10. The market generally anticipates no change, but a rate hike remains possible. Government subsidies on energy and social welfare programs have lowered prices for gasoline, utilities, and education. Excluding these factors, inflation is already significantly above 2%, and this trend is expected to become clearer in the coming months, with April's CPI projected to rise to 1.7% year-on-year. From May, both overall and core inflation are expected to exceed 2%. This year's 'Shunto' wage negotiations resulted in over 5% wage growth, with noticeable increases in small and medium-sized enterprises. Amid a weak yen and rising global energy prices, companies are expected to pass on increased input costs to consumers. These factors significantly complicate Tuesday's rate decision. ING believes the impact of the energy shock on inflation is more persistent and pronounced, while its effect on growth is relatively minor. This difference is expected to be reflected in the quarterly outlook report released on the same day. The bank forecasts the BOJ will raise its inflation expectation for fiscal year 2026 from 1.9% to 2.4%, and for fiscal year 2027 from 2.0% to 2.2%, while the GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 is slightly lowered from 1.0% to 0.7%.