Copper Production Forecast Decline Amid Indonesian Project Delays, Citic Securities Reports

Citic Securities has released a report indicating that global copper production forecasts for 2026 are officially in decline due to the Freeport's repeated delays in resuming operations at its Indonesian project and a comprehensive reduction in its 2026-27 production guidance. According to Jin10, the report highlights potential supply disruptions from extreme weather conditions, which could further exacerbate the situation. Citic Securities anticipates that the recent unexpected inventory reduction in China, reflecting strong supply-demand dynamics and reduced macroeconomic pressures, will help stabilize copper prices at $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. Additionally, the discrepancy between supply and demand expectations may drive copper prices to challenge previous highs. The report expresses optimism about the copper sector's configuration opportunities, citing the resonance of profit elasticity and valuation elasticity.