Bitcoin hovers near $97K, but derivatives data shows traders remain cautiousBitcoin (BTC) price surged to $97,838 on May 3, marking its highest level in 10 weeks, fueled by strong institutional demand and over $3.6 billion in net inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $96,362, up slightly despite heightened macroeconomic uncertainties.Despite the rally, derivatives market data reveals that futures traders are holding back on leveraged bullish positions. Analysts suggest that concerns over global trade tensions and a possible economic downturn are tempering expectations of a clean breakout toward the psychological $100,000 mark. ETF inflows surge, but spot market impact remains limitedNet inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have topped $3.6 billion over the past two weeks, a strong sign of institutional interest. However, the modest 5% price increase during the same period suggests that much of this activity may be driven by delta-neutral strategies—investors moving holdings into listed products or hedging through derivatives rather than outright bullish bets.While institutional activity supports long-term fundamentals, the short-term impact on price appears constrained. Bitcoin’s subdued reaction indicates that ETF demand alone is not enough to drive BTC to new all-time highs unless matched by broader retail interest and macro tailwinds.Futures premium and options skew show moderate optimismData from Laevitas shows Bitcoin’s two-month futures annualized premium remains between 6–7%, within the neutral zone (5–10%). For comparison, the premium exceeded 10% in January when BTC was also near $95,000, signaling waning trader conviction.However, options markets present a more bullish narrative. The 25% delta skew—a measure of the difference in demand between calls and puts—is at its lowest level since mid-February. This suggests that whales and market makers are increasingly pricing in higher odds of upside movement in the coming weeks.Bitcoin outperformed by gold as macro risks loomBitcoin recently overtook silver’s market cap, rising to the seventh-largest tradable asset globally, yet its performance remains overshadowed by gold’s explosive 20% rally, which pushed its valuation past $21.7 trillion.This divergence has renewed debate around Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, especially given its increasing correlation with traditional risk assets like equities. Many investors now view Bitcoin’s price path as closely tied to macroeconomic developments, particularly the escalating U.S.–China trade conflict and recessionary signals such as the recent negative U.S. GDP print.Cautious optimism favors slow grind over breakoutWhile derivatives and ETF data suggest that Bitcoin could continue its upward momentum, traders remain cautious. The lack of leverage usage and restrained futures premiums highlight a market that is optimistic—but not euphoric.Should Bitcoin hold above the $96,000 level with continued ETF inflows and no major macro shocks, a slow grind toward $100K remains plausible. However, any escalation in trade disputes or signs of stagflation could cap Bitcoin may have the momentum to challenge $100K, but traders are hedging their bets. Without a clear macroeconomic green light or retail surge, BTC’s next big move may require more than just ETF inflows.
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