According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin's fourth block reward halving is set to occur on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000. This event will see the block reward decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, following the predetermined issuance mechanism in the Bitcoin protocol, which triggers a halving every 210,000 blocks.
This supply adjustment is automatically executed by Bitcoin's consensus rules, requiring no governance votes or human intervention, reinforcing the certainty, transparency, and immutability of Bitcoin's monetary policy.
Post-halving, Bitcoin's daily issuance will mathematically reduce from approximately 900 BTC per day to about 450 BTC per day, based on the fixed 3.125 BTC block reward and an average block time of 10 minutes. Annually, the issuance will decrease from around 328,500 BTC to approximately 164,250 BTC, marking a permanent supply contraction independent of market demand, miner behavior, or macroeconomic conditions.
As a direct result of the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's annual supply inflation rate will drop to about 0.83%, calculated based on the circulating supply and the post-halving issuance rate. In comparison, gold's annual supply growth rate is typically estimated between 1% and 2%, while fiat currency expansion depends on central bank policies rather than fixed rules.
By the end of 2024, Bitcoin's circulating supply is expected to be around 19.7 million BTC, leaving less than 1.3 million BTC to be mined before reaching the protocol's maximum supply cap of 21 million BTC. At this stage, over 93.8% of Bitcoin will have been issued, meaning future halvings will have a diminishing impact on absolute supply but remain significant in proportional terms.
The halving will alter miners' income structure, halving block subsidy income overnight and increasing the relative share of transaction fees in total miner revenue. In the months following the halving, transaction fees are expected to constitute a larger portion of miner income, aligning with Bitcoin's long-term design to transition network security from block subsidies to a transaction fee-driven economic model.
Unlike traditional financial systems where monetary policy can be adjusted based on economic conditions, Bitcoin's supply change post-April 2024 halving is final and irreversible, with no mechanism to accelerate issuance during demand surges or slow it during market downturns. By the end of 2024, the market will face a low issuance baseline that will persist until the next halving, anticipated around 2028, when block rewards will further decrease to 1.5625 BTC.
With the fourth halving fully implemented, Bitcoin's low issuance rate becomes a long-term foundational condition, reshaping its supply structure in a transparent, predictable manner that can be independently verified by any full node operator. This change is embedded in Bitcoin's code and enforced by network consensus, making the post-halving supply mechanism one of the few mathematically precise variables in the global financial system.
JinseFinance
Coindesk