K33: Bitcoin's decline raises concerns about a four-year cycle, but a repeat of the extreme bear markets of 2018 or 2022 is unlikely.

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, stated that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its October high, with a weekly drop of 11% last week, significantly influenced by declining global risk appetite. While the recent price action bears a "disturbing resemblance" to the deep sell-offs of 2018 and 2022, Lunde emphasizes that "this time is different," predicting no 80% retracements like those in the previous two cycles. Lunde points out that the current market environment differs from previous cycles due to increased institutional adoption, inflows of funds into regulated products, and a looser interest rate environment. Simultaneously, several indicators commonly used to identify market bottoms are beginning to signal: on February 2nd, Bitcoin saw a high trading volume, reaching the 90th percentile, with a single-day turnover exceeding $8 billion, and the price retracing to its 2025 low. In the derivatives market, open interest and funding rates have both fallen into extreme negative territory, accompanied by approximately $1.8 billion in long position liquidations—a situation historically often accompanied by rebounds. Lunde emphasizes that while bottoming signals have appeared, they are not yet confirmed. Similar extreme trading volumes and derivatives indicators have occurred during false rallies or mid-term corrections. The key short-term support level is around $74,000; a break below this level could accelerate the decline, targeting either the November 2021 high of around $69,000 or the 200-week moving average of approximately $58,000. Overall, Lunde believes that long-term holders do not currently face urgent selling pressure, and the current price presents an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the market, without indicating a repeat of the extreme bear markets of 2018 or 2022.