Agent of "1011 Insider Whale": Trump's "48-Hour Ultimatum" May Trigger Increased Volatility in Oil Market, Raising Risk of Conflict Escalation.

Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," published an article on the X platform stating that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a significant escalation of the situation. He summarized this move as having three key impacts: First, the diplomatic buffer has been broken, potentially ending the previous low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan regarding the passage of ships one by one; second, the nature of the conflict has escalated, and if the attack expands to civilian infrastructure such as power plants, it will strengthen Iran's position and increase the probability of a protracted war; third, oil market volatility has surged, and market mismatch has intensified, with the crude oil volatility index (OVX) rising to 93, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is around 24, a ratio of nearly 4, indicating that the risks in the oil market far exceed those priced into the stock market. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise, and the duration of the conflict is expected to be prolonged.