BIT: In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound in the short term.

BIT released a chart today stating that Bitcoin is often categorized into two types of assets: one is an inflation hedge, and the other is a high-beta risk asset that moves in the same direction as tech stocks. Both narratives can explain some of its performance, but they don't fully cover Bitcoin's price logic. In contrast, we prefer to understand Bitcoin from the perspective of liquidity environment and capital flows. Historically, Bitcoin has generally performed stronger during periods of ample liquidity and low funding costs; conversely, its price tends to be under pressure during periods of tightening liquidity, reflecting changes in interest rate expectations and actual capital inflows and outflows. Recently, Bitcoin has shown strong stability. Neither interest rate forecasts nor geopolitical events have had a sustained impact on its price. This reflects, to some extent, that current market participation remains cautious, with trading volume and capital flows not yet showing a clear trend, and Bitcoin's sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in inflation expectations and broader risk appetite has decreased accordingly. After the deep pullback following the surge in Q4 2025, current market positioning has largely returned to normal. In the absence of clear catalysts, Bitcoin is likely to continue its range-bound trading in the short term. However, for investors who understand historical patterns and can position themselves when news events are frequent but actual volatility remains low, such an environment still presents opportunities.