Global Economic Concerns Amid Middle East Tensions

According to Jin10, a report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlights that since March, concerns over conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, along with potential blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered a market-wide risk aversion. This has led to declines in most asset classes, excluding oil and agricultural products, raising fears of stagflation. CICC acknowledges the undeniable impact of supply shocks, which could potentially slow overall economic growth. However, if the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, the geopolitical risks might exacerbate the K-shaped economic divergence, leading to increased investment activity while cooling consumption and employment. In the context of accelerated AI substitution and an inherently cooling labor market, inflation in resource and capital goods is unlikely to create a 'wage-inflation' spiral. From this perspective, CICC suggests that the mainstream narrative of global stagflation might be overstated. The report reiterates the view held since the beginning of the year that, amid an intensified K-shaped economy, liquidity recovery from its trough, and sustained fiscal expansion, the global nominal economic cycle driven by investment is expected to resume its upward trend. This will likely lead to continued rebalancing of global funds across sectors, asset classes, and regions, benefiting a range of physical assets and emerging markets.