Polymarket Lists Odds on 14-Day U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Event

PPP market monitoring shows that Polymarket has listed a prediction event on when the United States and Iran will reach a two-week ceasefire. The probability is 24% for September 4, 46% for September 11, 64% for September 18, and 73% for September 30, according to Odaily. Under the market rules, the event will settle as "Yes" if 14 consecutive days pass before the specified deadline without the United States carrying out a qualifying military action against Iran. The 14-day period begins the day after the most recent qualifying military action, or on the market creation date if no such action has occurred since then. A qualifying military action is defined as a U.S.-initiated airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting Iranian territory, including Iran's internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are excluded. Settlement will rely on official information from the U.S. and Iranian governments and militaries, as well as credible media reports.