OTC Weekly Trading Insights (03/12/2024)

On March 11, Amp ($AMP), the digital asset token used to collateralize payments on the Flexa Network, increased by more than 350% in just twelve hours. The volatile move in AMP price was thought to be caused by a short squeeze. It reached a multi-week high of 0.02429 USDT before quickly dropping back into the 0.01 USDT range. It is currently trading at $0.01425 USDT. The 0x Protocol is an open-source, decentralized exchange infrastructure that facilitates the exchange of tokenized assets across multiple blockchains. ZRX, the 0x Protocol's governance token, has experienced strong market demand since March 9. The high demand was fueled by social media hype claiming that big whales are accumulating large long positions in this token. This week, our desk noticed that on-chain gaming projects are receiving a lot of funding, and investors are lining up to buy gaming project tokens. Yield Guild Games ($YGG) and GALA ($GALA) are the two with the highest volume growth on Convert. Last week, both tokens experienced a more than 200% increase in volume on Convert, as well as an over 80% increase in price. Overall Market The above chart shows the BTC price movement since the beginning of January 2024. BTC surpassed the previous cycle peak of 69,000 USDT set in 2021, reaching 73,000 USDT today, March 12, 2024. Four years ago, on March 12, 2020, the crypto market and the entire financial market experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions in history. Along with the US equity market, which suffered the largest single-day percentage drop since the 1987 stock market crash, the crypto market experienced a massive market crash that day.  BTC price fell 39.4% in one day, from 7,934 USDT to 4,800 USDT. It fell further when the Asian market opened, reaching a low of 3,782 USDT before recovering to the 5,000 range.  ETH's price fell 44.6%, from 194 USDT to 107 USDT. It continued to fall to its lowest point of 86 USDT before recovering above the 100 level. Fast forward to today, BTC has reached an all-time high of 73,000 USDT, while ETH is trading at around 4,000 USDT. According to our analysis, BTC is in the price discovery phase, with 73,000 USDT serving as the new resistance level. This resistance level will not keep the BTC price in this range for long, and we expect it to quickly reach 80,000 once it clears the 73,000 barrier. Options Market The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options.  Following the strong break of the previous all-time high of $69,000, BTC experienced some selling pressure, and we see that demand has cooled down. Ethereum, on the other hand, will have its Dencun upgrade on March 13. The Dencun upgrade will significantly reduce gas fees on layer 2 networks, resulting in more on-chain transactions on L2s. However, the Dencun upgrade will not reduce the Layer 1 network gas fee, so users will continue to pay high gas fees for transactions on the Ethereum network. Therefore, we could see fewer transactions on the ETH network and more in L2 networks after the upgrade. Options traders continue to be bullish on Bitcoin, from short to long term.  However, traders have different perspectives on Ethereum in the short and long term. According to the table above, the 25-delta skewness of BTC options is positive across all tenors, with a greater skewness to the upside in long-duration options. That suggests that traders may retreat from their bullish views on BTC in the short term but remain bullish in the long term. The negative skewness of ETH options in the 7-day and 30-day expiries indicates that options traders are more willing to hold a negative delta position in the shorter tenors. In the long-duration ETH options, our desk noticed that the skewness has returned to positive territory. The 180-day expiry ETH options currently have a positive 6.75 skewness, which is similar to the skewness observed in BTC options of the same duration.  Macro at a glance  Last Wednesday (2024-03-06) The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 5.00%, unchanged. Governor Tiff Macklem declined to lay out a rate cut schedule, citing underlying inflation data that suggests a rate cut is premature at this time. In February, ADP nonfarm employment increased by 140,000, falling short of the expected 149,000. The lower-than-expected employment growth suggests that US labour market demand may begin to decline. Last Thursday (2024-03-07) The European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.50%, unchanged. The ECB also reduced its annual inflation forecast and hinted that they will have more data in June to increase its confidence in a rate cut. Fed Chairman Powell testified before the House, stating that the Fed does not expect a recession in the United States in the foreseeable future. He also stated that the Fed was close to having enough confidence to cut interest rates. The market is now pricing in the first interest rate cut for the June meeting.  Last Friday (2024-03-08) Average hourly earnings in the United States increased by 0.1% in February, falling short of expectations of 0.2% and January's 0.5% increase. Slower hourly earnings growth reduces consumer demand in the United States, resulting in lower inflationary pressures on goods and services. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% in February from 3.7% in January. The unexpected change in the unemployment rate indicated some extent of labour market rebalancing. On Tuesday (2024-03-12) In February, Germany's CPI increased by 0.4%, up from 0.2% in the previous month. The annualized CPI growth rate was 2.5%, down from 2.9% in January. The US CPI increased by 3.2% annually in February, exceeding the forecasted 3.1% and January's 3.1%. Core CPI growth was 3.8% annually, higher than the expected 3.7% but lower than January's 3.9%. The higher-than-expected CPI readings caused some volatility in the US futures markets. The hot CPI readings, however, did not change the market's view of the Fed's June rate cut. The S&P 500 index rose 1.12%, the Nasdaq index rose 1.54%, and the Dow Jones industrial average index rose 0.61%. Along with the strong US equity market, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73k after the market opened and was heavily sold afterwards. The Bitcoin price fell 6% to $68,620 intraday before recovering from the low and now trading at $72,030. Convert Portal Volume Change The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.  This week our desk observed massive trading demand on Gaming and Infrastructure zones.  In the last seven days, the Gaming Zone has emerged as the most popular area. The trading volume increased by 89.8%, primarily due to high demand for Yield Guild Games ($YGG) and GALA ($GALA). The Infrastructure zone also experienced a 50% increase in trading volume on our Convert Portal. Livepeer ($LPT) and Render ($RNDR), both of which focus on the DePin area, are the two main contributors to this high growth volume. Our desk also observed that demand in the Meme zone has decreased by 25.9%. Following the stunning 1,182% volume increase last week, the FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment subsided. Our desk noticed that most flows in the Meme zone seemed to be skewed towards cashing out. 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