According to CryptoPotato, Polkadot's price has been experiencing a prolonged corrective consolidation around the crucial $6.5 support level. The price has slightly retraced towards the 100-day moving average, indicating a continuation of this consolidation phase. A comprehensive analysis of the daily chart reveals a swift rebound near the pivotal $6.5 support level, with a minor bullish retracement suggesting a lack of significant market activity and momentum. This indicates a cooling down in the futures market.
The price remains within a crucial range, bordered by the significant resistance zone of the 100-day moving average at $8.1, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($8), and the significant support region of $6.5. These levels serve as crucial reference points for Polkadot in the short term, and a breakout from this critical range could result in a substantial market movement.
Upon closer examination of the 4-hour timeframe, there is evidence of bullish corrective retracements towards the critical resistance region of the 0.5 ($7.4) and 0.618 ($7.8) Fibonacci levels. This has led to the formation of an ascending wedge, a recognized bearish continuation pattern. However, the Polkadot price has recently faced rejection from the 0.5 Fib level and experienced a decline, breaking below the lower boundary of the pattern. This suggests the potential for a continued downtrend, with the price aiming for the crucial support region of $6.
The intensity of long and short positions in the perpetual market, along with the potential for significant liquidations, significantly impacts market volatility. Open Interest, a crucial metric measuring the number of open perpetual futures contracts across cryptocurrency exchanges, provides valuable insights into market sentiment. With Polkadot’s recent downtrend, it’s notable that the Open Interest metric has mirrored this trajectory, experiencing a notable decline. This synchronization suggests a reduction in activity within the futures market. Consequently, as the price is currently testing a critical support region, the market seems primed for the resurgence of long positions, potentially signaling a fresh and decisive market movement.