Alex Krüger: The main driver of this round of market decline is not the US economic recession, but the missed opportunity to cut interest rates

Cryptocurrency analyst Alex Krüger wrote on X: "This round of market crash is clearly driven by macro factors, not specific to the cryptocurrency industry. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that the main driver is not the collapse of the US economy (discussions about a US recession heated up after the release of employment data last Friday). It seems that the policy mistake is not that the Fed did not cut interest rates quickly enough, but that the Fed did not cut interest rates when Japan raised interest rates. This statement is indeed a bit "hindsight", and we now need US economic data to confirm this. The chart shows the starting point of last week's sell-off, which was after the FOMC released its statement last Wednesday. It was exactly when the Nikkei opened. A financial crisis caused mainly by a large number of Japanese leveraged speculators is much better than a financial crisis caused by the US recession. As for US data, the focus now is on the job market, so pay special attention to the number of initial unemployment claims this Thursday (usually not a market-moving data), and the state employment data to be released on August 16 (State Employment data, which provides detailed state-level employment data and is rarely paid attention to by the market)."