Crypto data analysis platform glassnode released a report stating, “Bitcoin price trends have stagnated and investor sentiment has been muted over the past six months. However, significant changes have occurred over the past three months and downward pressure has increased, causing the crypto market to experience the worst period of this cycle. Notable pullback. Still, from a macro perspective, Bitcoin spot prices are about 22% below their all-time highs, which is still a relatively small drop compared to the magnitude of pullbacks seen during historical bull runs, indicating that most Bitcoin investors are still making substantial profits, underscoring the robustness of their positions. However, the short-term holder group is still suffering from high unrealized losses, indicating that they are currently the most vulnerable group and will be in a market decline. is the main source of selling pressure. The short-term holder group represents the new demand in the market and seems to bear the majority of the market pressure. Their unrealized losses have dominated the overall situation, and the scale of this loss has increased over the past few years. The increase continued in the middle of the month. We can confirm the above observation by evaluating the short-term holder MVRV ratio, which has fallen below the breakeven value of 1.0, indicating that, on average, new investors hold positions at a floating loss.
Overall, the market is expected to remain weak unless Bitcoin prices return to short-term holders’ cost basis of $62,400. Meanwhile, profit and loss activity remains very light, suggesting that the current price range is reaching saturation, with key indicators such as sell-side risk ratios hinting at the potential for higher volatility ahead. "