QCP Capital: Crypto Market Sideways, Awaiting US CPI Data Release

QCP Capital's latest report notes that last week's non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, sending US stock futures higher and two-year Treasury yields to a year-to-date low. Markets are betting on a 72 basis point rate cut this year. However, the risk appetite fueled by the expectation of a rate cut has not been transmitted to the crypto sector, with cryptocurrencies remaining sideways for the past week. The report states that risk reversals indicate a significant increase in demand for put options expiring in September, suggesting the market may interpret the sideways trend as a bearish signal. However, some argue that Bitcoin, despite being removed from the S&P 500, has held above $110,000, and Ethereum, which has remained stable above $4,250, demonstrates asset resilience. QCP Capital believes this lack of direction reflects market caution ahead of Thursday's US CPI release, and short-term implied volatility is expected to remain elevated. If inflation data exceeds the expected 0.3%, the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts could be further complicated. However, given the limited impact of tariffs, the Trump administration is unlikely to escalate trade tensions further.