iCapital: The 10-year US Treasury yield could rise to 4.5% in the second half of 2026.

In a outlook report, iCapital stated that it expects the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to trade within the 4.0%-4.5% range in 2026, potentially hitting the upper limit in the second half of the year. The report stated, "While we still expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fluctuate within this range, at least at the beginning of 2026, it could potentially move to 4.5% if the deficit outlook worsens." The report noted that this could put pressure on risk assets and capital market activity. (Jinshi)