Investment banks predict a "crypto winter" in 2026, but institutionalization and on-chain transformation will continue.

In its year-end report, investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged downtrend, potentially facing a "crypto winter" in 2026. Analyst Brett Knoblauch stated that with approximately 85 days remaining until Bitcoin's cyclical high, prices may remain under pressure in the coming months, even testing the average break-even point of around $75,000 for Strategy positions. However, Cantor believes this correction differs from previous bear markets triggered by large-scale liquidations or systemic risks. The dominant force in the market is shifting from retail to institutional investors, with token price performance showing a clear divergence from underlying developments. Decentralized finance, asset tokenization, and crypto infrastructure continue to advance. The report shows that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) has grown to approximately $18.5 billion this year, tripling since the beginning of the year, covering credit products, US Treasury bonds, and stocks. Cantor predicts that the on-chain RWA market will exceed $50 billion in 2026, with the growth rate likely to accelerate as more financial institutions attempt on-chain settlement. In terms of trading structure, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are continuously eroding the market share of centralized platforms. Although Cantor predicts that overall trading volume may decline in 2026 as cryptocurrency prices fall, DEXs, represented by perpetual contracts, are still expected to continue to grow, driven by improvements in infrastructure and user experience. On the regulatory front, the recently passed Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act (CLARITY) in the United States is considered a significant turning point. This act clarifies the definition of digital assets between securities and commodities and, after meeting decentralized conditions, transfers primary regulatory authority over the spot crypto market to the CFTC. This framework is expected to reduce policy uncertainty and provide a compliant path for banks and asset management institutions to participate more deeply in the crypto market. Furthermore, the report also mentions the rapid expansion of on-chain prediction markets, especially in the sports betting sector, where related trading volume has exceeded $5.9 billion, reaching more than 50% of DraftKings' third-quarter trading volume. Institutions such as Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have entered this field, promoting a more transparent, order book-based model. Cantor also cautioned that risks remain: Bitcoin's price is only slightly above the cost range of some crypto asset treasury companies, and a break below key support levels could trigger market sentiment volatility; meanwhile, the pace of accumulation by digital asset trusts has slowed as prices and premiums have contracted. Overall, Cantor believes that a new price surge is unlikely in 2026, but as the market cools, a more robust infrastructure and deeper institutionalization are gradually taking shape. (CoinDesk)