Everyone was expecting another Bitcoin capitulation event, but data shows that massive buying has already begun.
In a Twitter thread on June 29, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at data firm Glassnode, drew attention to who in Bitcoin is actually hoarding.
The Bitcoin sell-off has been making headlines for weeks and has even begun to include long-term holders (LTH) — those who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more.
Speculators are not taking responsibility for the current bitcoin price weakness, but contrary to popular belief, many market participants are actually increasing their bitcoin allocations.
By analyzing Glassnode data, Checkmate found that both the smallest and largest investors were in buying mode around $20,000.
Dividing the holders into four tiers: "Shrimp", "Crab" (also known as the classic holder), "Shark" and Whale, the numbers read surprisingly.
Shrimp and Crab, the smallest retail investors with 10 or fewer BTC in their wallets, are not only hoarding, but more intense than at any time since 2017, when BTC/USD first touched $20,000.
"Can't stop, can't stop," Checkmate describes this accumulation of action.
“Xiami is increasing Bitcoin balance at the highest rate since the all-time high in 2017. Same price, different trend direction. I will not underestimate the wisdom and belief of the Bitcoin little people.”
On the other hand, whales are also moving bitcoins from exchanges to private wallets at an alarming rate.
The main exceptions are in the middle: sharks or institutions, high-net-worth entities with between 10 and 1,000 bitcoins.
While this accounts for a large portion of the network, holders are bearing the brunt of the macro changes, either getting liquidated or seeing their fortunes wiped out in DeFi bets, according to Checkmate.
Even here, however, the general trend is upward.
“Balances are increasing, but nothing out of the ordinary. Given the poor performance of TradFi and crypto, I suspect these folks have been heavily impacted by deleveraging and margin calls,” he wrote.
Earlier this week, data from Glassnode also showed that 30-day cumulative bitcoin outflows from exchanges reached a new peak.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of another analytics firm, CryptoQuant, sees signs that capital is sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be redeployed into the cryptocurrency space.
Ki noted that the total market capitalization of stablecoins is down only 11%, while Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is down 70% from its all-time high.
“Stablecoins on exchanges are now worth half of Bitcoin reserves,” he added on June 30.
“We have $25 billion in stablecoins that can make crypto prices go up. The question is when, not how.”
The situation is complicated by two years in which the exchange’s stablecoin-to-market cap ratio has remained virtually unchanged, while the stablecoin itself has inflated its market cap during that time.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply ratios on exchanges are more volatile.
Exchange’s Bitcoin Supply Ratio vs. BTC/USD Chart Source: CryptoQuant
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