Bitcoin (BTC) may track sideways for another two years before reigniting its bull run, new data argues.
In a tweet on April 6, veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted historical patterns, suggesting that hodlers will have to wait until 2024 for their next moonshot.
Bitcoin has surprised analysts with its performance over the past year, as the highly anticipated “blow-off” top in Q4 2021 was much lower than expected.
After BTC/USD lost over 50% of those modest new all-time highs, the debate around the relationship of price to Bitcoin‘s four-year halving cycles changed.
The market, as Cointelegraph recently reported, was used to a macro price top coming once per four-year cycle, specifically the year after each of Bitcoin‘s block subsidy halving events.
Now, however, the price action is less predictable. While the factors controlling it are many and varied, it does not necessarily mean that bulls will get their break at a different point in the current cycle.
Brandt‘s data shows that the next impulse wave for Bitcoin may not be until May 2024 — which almost exactly lines up with the next block subsidy halving.
Historically, this would be a year too early for a blow-off top, but it could still deliver a 10-times price increase based on historical patterns which go beyond halving cycles.
“The past two times BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in,” Brandt explained.
“If history repeats itself (which I do not believe it will), the next rocket stage will be ignited in May 2024.”
In terms of what could keep Bitcoin suppressed until then, analysts have pointed the finger overwhelmingly at macro triggers.
Related: Bitcoin slides below $44K in April first as trader warns ‘something is off’ with BTC
Central bank tightening, if successful, should logically pressure risk assets. At the same time, a prolonged period of high inflation and low-interest rates likewise paints a gloomy picture for Bitcoin — at least in the short term.
Further out, the status quo could change once the initial shock of these events subsides. Both Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of exchange BitMEX, and Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone are conspicuously more confident about Bitcoin on longer timeframes than in the coming months.
“BTC is a risk-on safehaven. Gold is a risk-off safehaven. Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safehaven, this year will be the first proper market test of it,” statistician Willy Woo forecasted in February about the 2022 outlook.
“In a war time scenario, risk-off is the first market response, the second market response is towards safehavens.”
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
JPMorgan anticipates Bitcoin's rally before the halving, noting its current surge and limited upside potential. They highlight the flow of Bitcoin and upcoming catalysts while expressing concerns about Tether and potential regulatory oversight.
Huang BoBitcoin will halve around April 2024. Despite challenges to miner revenue in the short term, underlying on-chain activity and positive market structure updates make this halving different on a fundamental level.
JinseFinanceThe upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving sparks anticipation, driven by historical retracement patterns. While challenges in predicting price movements persist, a blend of excitement and apprehension defines the community's sentiment, highlighting potential retracement possibilities.
BerniceAs market conditions improve across the board, digital assets will rebound sharply in 2023; with the upcoming launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional interest is also accelerating. Looking forward to 2024, we will see many important developments and progress.
JinseFinanceBoth on-chain valuations and network metrics suggest that Bitcoin remains in a bull cycle.
JinseFinanceThe event will double the bitcoin production cost to around $40,000, creating a positive psychological effect, the report said.
CoindeskBitcoin has gone through a halving event three times in its history – in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020.
FinboldThe last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next bitcoin halving will likely occur in 2024.
CoindeskBitcoin’s hashrate is reaching all-time highs, and it’s causing confusion about “the halvening” on Twitter.
CoindeskHash rate on the bitcoin network has hit a new all-time high of 281.79 million TH/s, and its next halving dates is projected to be as early as Q4 2023.
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