Bitcoin (BTC) has reached highs of $60,000, but calculations suggest that this price level will be more important to bears than bulls.
In a tweet on Oct. 14, popular Twitter account TechDev re-emphasized historical data that has accurately tracked Bitcoin’s highs and lows so far.
How about an 80% Bitcoin price crash? $60,000?
While BTC/USD is expected to recapture all-time highs and climb into six figures this year, investor attention has turned to how far Bitcoin will fall after its next peak.
It is widely accepted that Bitcoin’s price action is cyclical — there is a bearish phase with a bottom being an 80% drop from the peak.
However, under the current circumstances, it is even harder to believe that $60,000 may be the price floor for a potential 80% retracement.
Via the Fibonacci sequence, TechDev proved that every Bitcoin bottomed in the same range. This is why the price of Bitcoin fell below the low of $200 in 2014 and the bottom of around $3,200 in December 2018.
Given Bitcoin's cyclical nature, a reasonable target for the next pullback would be between $47,000 and $60,000.
“I know no one looks at the macro situation during a decline. But the past two BTC bear markets have bottomed out at 1.486-1.618 log fib (Fibonacci) in the previous cycle,” he commented.
“Suggests that the next bear market bottom is $47-60k. If that’s where we bottom after a 80-85% drop...the math gets interesting.”
BTC/USD Annotated Chart Source: TechDev/Twitter
$60,000 as the top 20% makes it possible for Bitcoin to test $300,000 during this period.
bears a striking resemblance to gold
The momentum behind bitcoin has been tied to expectations that U.S. regulators will eventually approve some form of bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Commentators say that while opinions vary on the impact of the decision, its significance is not a red herring but marks a true watershed moment of irreversibility for bitcoin.
Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch mentioned prominent investor Paul Tudor Jones this week when explaining the “excitement” over a bitcoin ETF.
Tudor Jones has previously highlighted that Bitcoin cycles are similar to gold in the 1970s - when gold itself became a futures product and enjoyed a ten-year bull market followed by a 50% correction.
TechDev also pointed out that gold's performance in the 1970s closely matches Bitcoin's performance since October 2020.
Scott Melker believes that during the last halving cycle, the price of Bitcoin rose from a high of $20,000 to a high of $69,000, an appreciation of 250.86%. If a similar trend emerges, “Bitcoin will be at $240,000.”
JinseFinanceDiscussions about Bitcoin governance often focus on who is the ultimate decision-maker, with recurring candidates including miners, nodes, and investors. The purposes and mechanisms of governance are often only hinted at or even disconnected from reality.
JinseFinanceExplore Frax Finance's groundbreaking launch of Fraxtal, its Layer 2 blockchain solution. Delve into how Fraxtal aims to revolutionize DeFi with advanced rollups technology, strategic partnerships, and unique incentive features.
MiyukiThe National Bitcoin Office of El Salvador (ONBTC) issued a statement stating that the Bitcoin bond "Volcano Bond" has been approved by the El Salvador Digital Assets Commission and is expected to be issued in the first quarter of 2024.
JinseFinanceThe looming prospect of a US Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has ignited optimism within the crypto industry, but it has also raised concerns among Bitcoin mining firms.
JasperThe Human Rights Foundation (HRF) has announced its most recent round of donations, which total $325,000 in BTC and are focused on supporting important components of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
OthersThere are four primary ways to track whale activities, which include monitoring known whale addresses, order books, sudden changes in market capitalization and trades on crypto exchanges.
CointelegraphAs May draws to a close, the cryptocurrency market has started to develop itself — but not in the direction anyone had hoped.
CointelegraphSigns pointing to Bitcoin’s steady maturity and growth in the crypto space and beyond are undeniable, making a case for the cryptocurrency being the ultimate digital reserve asset.
CointelegraphA Bitcoin hostel under construction in Portugal reflects a growing trend of business built with more than just a digital currency in mind.
Cointelegraph