Original Author: Benny Attar
Translator: LlamaC
"Recommendation: It mainly introduces the development history, working principles and advantages of the prediction market compared with traditional polls, and demonstrates the successful application of the prediction market in actual prediction through the example of the 2024 US presidential election.
Polymarket election ad. Source: The Information. A recurring theme emerges throughout the history of prediction markets: they consistently leverage private information and real-time incentives more effectively than static surveys. What began as speculation about the papal election has evolved into a prediction engine that aggregates decentralized insights, continuously updates probabilities, and links each prediction to real monetary gain. Despite their proven superiority—outperforming expert models, corporate forecasts, and all major election polls—prediction markets remain in the shadow of traditional polls and subject to misconceptions about gambling. If our goal is to make more informed decisions under uncertainty, relying on the same polling cycle every four years and then lamenting its failures must give way to the market. It's time to change our default and embrace the market. Doing so will provide us with the clearest glimpse into the future: the wisdom of the crowd.
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