Awaiting Green Light: Nvidia Faces US Licence Delay for H200 Shipments to China

The path back into China’s AI market is opening again for Nvidia, but the route remains tightly controlled, shaped by export licences, political trade-offs and quiet regulatory signals rather than public approvals.

US Export Licences Still Pending As Demand Builds

Nvidia is waiting on the US government to approve export licences that would allow it to ship its H200 AI chips to China.

While the company has not been given a timeline, its finance chief says the process is moving at speed.

Speaking at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, CFO Colette Kress said the US government is “working feverishly” on the applications.

She added that Nvidia is seeing strong interest from Chinese customers following President Donald Trump’s decision last year to reverse a long-standing ban on shipping the chips.

Kress declined to comment on any direct engagement with Chinese officials, stating,

“We’re going to wait and see what will happen.”

China’s Role Quiet But Decisive

Even if Washington signs off, China must still approve the imports.

Nvidia executives are not expecting any formal announcements from Beijing.

CEO Jensen Huang said approval would become clear only through incoming orders.

“We’re not expecting any press releases, or any large declarations. It’s just going to be purchase orders.”

According to earlier reports, Chinese authorities are considering whether to permit the shipments, but Nvidia has not indicated if those talks are active.

H200 Production Restarted As Supply Chain Reopens

Huang confirmed that Nvidia has restarted production of the H200 chips and is coordinating final licence details with the US government.

He said at a press conference at CES,

“We’ve fired up our supply chain, and H200s are flowing through the line.”

Kress said Nvidia is not facing any major production constraints as output ramps up.

“We feel very solid” about the state of the supply chain, she said.

The H200 sits one or two generations behind Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips.

Unlike earlier models approved for China, it has not been deliberately slowed to meet export rules.

A Market Nvidia Says Could Be Worth $50 Billion A Year

Investors see China as a major growth opportunity as local tech firms build their own AI models.

Huang has previously estimated the market could be worth $50 billion annually, none of which is currently included in Nvidia’s forecasts.

In December, Trump said Nvidia could export the H200 to China provided the company paid 25% of those sales to the US government.

Huang said any revenue from China would come on top of Nvidia’s existing outlook.

“It appears that we’re going to be going back to China.”

Next-Generation Chips And Long-Term Sales Ambitions

Alongside the China discussion, Nvidia used CES to unveil six new chips now in full production as part of its next “Vera Rubin” generation of AI systems.

The company is targeting $500 billion in sales from its current Blackwell chips and the upcoming Vera Rubin line by the end of this year.

Kress said customers are already discussing data centre projects stretching into 2027, though she did not provide updated sales guidance.

For now, Nvidia’s return to China hinges less on headlines and more on paperwork, approvals and whether orders start to arrive quietly behind the scenes.