Bitcoin 15th Anniversary Outlook: Debt Crisis Is Coming

Author: Marty Bent; Compiler: Qin Jin Carbon Chain Value

January 3 is the 15th anniversary of the birth of the Bitcoin genesis block. Personally, it’s incredible to think about. This means that Bitcoin has been around for nearly half of my life, and I have been involved with Bitcoin for nearly a third of my life. From January 3, 2009 to today, too much has happened. A lot of the coverage I see revolves around the fact that we are currently in the maturity phase of Bitcoin, with spot Bitcoin ETFs imminent, the U.S. Treasury debt just over $34 trillion, and annual debt interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, The global geopolitical situation has never been more tense.

Satoshi Nakamoto, in the abyss of the financial crisis, provided the world with the solutions humanity needed to right the ship that had been derailed by the shortcomings of fiat currencies. . Now, there is a mechanism for anyone with this positive idea to take control of their money. This is a powerful reality, but one that most people - even 15 years later - are blind to. However, as the U.S. national debt grows at a rate of $1 trillion per quarter and inflationary pressure increasingly squeezes the lives of ordinary people, more and more people are beginning to realize that Bitcoin was born to solve these problems.

Today is more appropriate than ever to put the problems people are currently facing into perspective. To do this, let’s look at the currency and debt situation before and after Bitcoin’s launch.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2008, the U.S. national debt was approximately US$10.7 trillion. From this perspective, we can move forward in time. The first time the national debt exceeded the $5 trillion mark was in the first quarter of 1996. So it took 220 years to go from 0 to 5 trillion dollars and only 12 years to double, which is completely crazy. The really crazy numbers came after the 2008 crisis. In the third quarter of 2017, the national debt swelled to over $20 trillion for the first time in less than nine years after reaching $10 trillion. And in just over six years since the third quarter of 2017, debt has soared to well over $34 trillion. All in all, the current total U.S. national debt is more than three times what it was when Bitcoin was launched. In other words, 68% of the debt this country has accumulated over the past 248 years has been issued in the past 15 years, accounting for 6% of the debt in this country's lifetime. We are firmly in the "rapid issuance" phase of our national debt addiction. Based on the rapid expansion of money, this astronomical debt is still expanding, but it has not yet reached the speed of debt repayment.

In January 2009, the ratio of national debt to M2 money stock was 1.29 ($107,000,000 debt, $8,300,000 M2). Today, that ratio has swelled to 1.63 ($34 billion debt: $208 billion M2). As our friend Parker Lewis likes to say, it's becoming increasingly clear that there is too much debt and not enough dollars to pay it off. Something is going to break one way or another. When this happens, ordinary people don't have an easy time. Either there's an open default, causing people's pensions to depreciate in value and, thanks to target-date funds, become heavily skewed toward government debt as retirement approaches. Or a soft landing, with the Fed and Treasury printing dollars and creating more debt at an unimaginable rate. This ultimately led to a devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Both methods lead to the same results, just at different times.

Many people believe that the expansion of the monetary base and the increase in the issuance of government bonds will not pose a threat to the dominance of the US dollar in the world, but this idea is driven by It comes from people who are either extremely arrogant or extremely naive trying to show off their strength in order to maintain their status in the world. I won't pretend to know the exact time of the collapse, but I'm sure it was inevitable. When everything finally collapses, Bitcoin will help as many people as possible escape the madness that the collapse will bring.

In its first 15 years, Bitcoin brought millions of users, trillions of dollars in transaction settlement value, and global computing power. geography, and hopes for a better future. A future financial system based on a peer-to-peer cash system. Compared with the existing system, the supply of Bitcoin has a hard upper limit and corruption is infinitely more difficult. Bitcoin’s scarcity will bring about unprecedented abundance in the world. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your outlook on life and the benefits of hard work), we are going to have to live with the madness of the dollar system until it fails