Bitcoin continues to hit new highs and approaches $100,000. What should I do with my hands full of fakes?

Author: NingNing

Bitcoin’s blood-sucking market is in a self-reinforcing stage. Previously, it was only sucking blood from altcoins, but in the past two days, it has begun to suck blood from MeMe coins on the chain.

I observed this morning that the market sentiment on Twitter has become very bad, and the voices of crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism are very loud.

Many respected traders and OGs even lamented that "the altcoin season is over."

From the historical data presented in Dune's Alts Buy Signal chart, there are 4 modes between BTC and altcoins:

Mode 1: BTC rises, altcoins rise

In this mode, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, and BTC.D (BTC market value share) may fluctuate or decline. This is the bull market boom.

This is the time to go long. If the altcoin trend is stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. Otherwise, you need to be cautious.

Mode 2: BTC falls, altcoins fall

In this mode, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.

This is the time to de-risk, buy more stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time it is worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it is recommended to wait for the trend to reverse. For long-term Holders, it is recommended to DCA or Buy the dip.

Pattern 3: BTC falls and altcoins rise

This pattern rarely occurs. When BTC fluctuates and does not fall aggressively, it may be a short-term alt season. Consider increasing risk exposure.

Pattern 4: BTC rises and altcoins fall

BTC outperforms the market in the upward trend, and BTC.D continues to hit new highs. This pattern usually occurs before the halving, or at the beginning of a bull market.

At this stage, it is recommended to take the opportunity to accumulate altcoins and wait for an outbreak.

The above is the historical law summarized by @cryptokoryo.

It seems that we are now in a state of mode, but we have to admit that the duration and degree of the decoupling of BTC and altcoins this time far exceed historical cases.

In addition, after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the market is worried that it will change the mode of capital allocation of crypto assets, and MSTR became the hottest transaction in the US stock market yesterday, which seems to verify that this worry is becoming a fact, making the altcoin season skepticism more convincing.

But as an eternal crypto optimist, I can still see "disruptive innovation" in rapid iteration in the fields of chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, Bitcoin ecology, etc., and I can feel the push of "exponential growth" in the fields of MeMe coins and consumer chains. At this time, talking about the "end of history" of altcoins is an irrational emotional catharsis in my eyes. If such a market makes you feel anxious and hesitant, you might as well take some time to observe the altcoin projects that are doing things:

• Chain abstract infra @ParticleNtwrk

• Chain abstract fat application @infinex_app

• New paradigm infra from Cosmos: @initia

• Bitcoin ecosystem idealist: @NervosNetwork

• Bitcoin L2 endorsed by the world's largest Bitcoin mining company: @build_on_bob

• Cooperate with Ai16z to develop Ai Agent Platform for equal rights in asset issuance and technology: @vvaifudotfun

• Solana L2, which successfully gained 1M followers on Tiktok: @SonicSVM

Tranquility leads to far-reaching results. A calm mind is the best medicine for us to maintain our composure in the stormy waves of trading.

That’s all.