Bitcoin Treasury Reserve: Where is the Future?

Author: Sean Kiernan, CEO of Greengage; Source: Coindesk; Compiler: Shaw Jinse Finance

Currently, over 160 publicly traded companies have adopted Bitcoin as a core treasury reserve strategy, collectively holding nearly one million Bitcoins, representing approximately 4% of the circulating supply. What began as a bold experiment by a single company has now evolved into a common global strategy: raising capital, purchasing Bitcoin, and providing partial equity exposure to Bitcoin through listed vehicles. These shares trade not based on earnings or cash flow but on their solvency per Bitcoin, and most companies have market capitalizations exceeding their net asset values, or, in now-popular parlance, reaching a "mNAV" (market capitalization to net asset value) ratio exceeding 1. The question now is no longer whether the Bitcoin reserve model can be implemented, but rather what the risks and opportunities will be next.

The First Era: From Narrative to Replication

The beginnings of Bitcoin Treasury Reserve companies were characterized by narrative and replication. Michael Saylor's Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has shown that raising equity at a premium to net asset value (NAV), converting it into Bitcoin, and never selling it can transform a software company into a $100 billion Bitcoin alternative. From Tokyo-based Metaplanet to US healthcare company Semler Scientific to London-based Smarter Web Company, this model has spread rapidly. But high premium multiples may not be sustainable simply by telling a story and holding Bitcoin. For this model to survive its adolescence, companies may need to justify their NAV multiples above 1 in a more sustainable way. Bitcoin Treasury's Next Leverage: Leverage One: Yield Advantage Just as real estate investment trusts (REITs) transitioned from landlords to yield generators, Bitcoin Treasury Reserve must demonstrate that it can achieve incremental growth per Bitcoin, not just hoard it. This could be achieved through Bitcoin-collateralized loans, Lightning Network infrastructure, or new financial products that monetize balance sheet holdings. For example, locking Bitcoin in Lightning Network payment channels could allow Bitcoin holders to earn fees for providing this liquidity, potentially earning a yield. However, all yield strategies carry risks that need to be considered and managed, such as credit risk and counterparty risk. Without a yield engine, dilution could ultimately occur, potentially compressing mNAV to 1. Leverage 2: Leverage (Risk-Weighted) The winners in the last bear market weren't those with the largest balance sheets, but rather those that strategically arranged their capital to survive forced liquidations. Some Bitcoin Treasury Reserve companies are currently considering using their Bitcoin as collateral for Bitcoin-backed loans in exchange for US dollars. These dollars can then be deployed as the company sees fit, such as earning returns or purchasing more Bitcoin. However, such activities require rigorous risk management, as well as cash flow and scenario modeling. Leverage can amplify the reflexive flywheel effect, but it also requires discipline: only raise capital at a premium, never collateralize hard assets, and extend debt maturities to account for cyclical fluctuations. Leverage 3: Complementary Business Models The third lever is to provide complementary business models, or the "picks and shovels" of the Bitcoin economy. Some Bitcoin treasury companies are already investing in infrastructure: data centers, decentralized AI computing, Bitcoin-native software, or business services. This dual model can transform them from pure net asset value arbitrage into platforms with operating cash flow. This potentially makes them more than just Bitcoin alternatives, but also stocks with growth potential. This bears similarities to the companies from the dot-com era that eventually grew into today's tech industry infrastructure giants, often with substantial cash reserves themselves: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and others. Towards Professionalization and Institutionalization: The reflexive phase of the Bitcoin treasury model is nearing its end. As this process slows, companies are professionalizing their Bitcoin reserve strategies: designing resilient capital structures, perhaps generating Bitcoin returns without diluting per-share exposure, and developing business lines that connect to the broader digital asset infrastructure. Those that succeed may be able to justify a persistent share price premium to net asset value, solidify their shareholder base, and become the Bitcoin equivalent of real estate investment trusts (REITs), tech giants, or energy giants. Those that stagnate risk fading into irrelevance, even trading on the stock market like closed-end funds with no growth to speak of. The Next Game—Beyond Buying Bitcoin The next game probably won't be buying Bitcoin; that strategy is already written. It's about building the financial architecture that keeps mNAV above 1, cycle after cycle. The companies that crack the code won't just be proxies for Bitcoin. They could become the equity layer of a new monetary system.