Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Translated by: 0xjs@黄金财经
Every year, the Bitwise team gets together to make its annual predictions for the future of cryptocurrency. This process requires hours of discussion, debate, and reflection among a dozen team members. It's one of the most exciting things we do every year.
We'll release our 2025 predictions on December 10th. Hint: We think 2025 is going to be crazy. But before we get to next year's predictions, it's worth looking back at how 2024 performed.
Context Setting: Looking Back at December 2023
First, let's set the scene.
We released our 2024 predictions on December 12, 2023. Cryptocurrencies were in a very different position at the time. Bitcoin was trading at $43,750, and anti-cryptocurrency rhetoric in Washington, D.C. was intense. Just days before we published our 2024 forecast, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon testified at a congressional hearing that he has always been “vehemently opposed to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, et cetera.” Then he said, “If I were the government, I’d shut it down.”
The progress made in 2024 is amazing. Bitcoin is now trading near $100,000, pro-crypto politicians dominate Washington, and Wall Street firms are eagerly developing in the space. But none of this was apparent when we made our annual forecast in December 2023.
Let’s see how we did.
2024 Prediction 1: Bitcoin will trade above $80,000, a new all-time high.
Result: Correct
We were right on target with this one. Bitcoin broke through $80,000 in November and has continued to rise, currently trading near $100,000. Our thesis at the time—that spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the Bitcoin halving would together drive prices higher—was completely correct.
We will announce our 2025 price target next week and add price targets for Ethereum and Solana. Stay tuned.
Prediction 2: Spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved and will be the most successful ETF launch ever.
Result: Correct
That’s a win, too. The spot Bitcoin ETF, approved in January 2024, has become the most successful ETF launch to date. As of December 1, 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $31 billion in inflows. The previous record for “most successful ETF launch ever” was held by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which went public in 1999 and attracted $5 billion in assets in its first year. Gold ETFs attracted less than $2 billion in their first year. Bitcoin ETF flows are multiples of that and growing.
Prediction 3: Coinbase will double its revenues and beat Wall Street expectations (earnings) by at least 10 times.
Result: True
This will be a close race. Coinbase has revenues of $3.1 billion in 2023 and $4.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2024. Will it reach $6.2 billion by the end of the year? I think so. Q4 was a phenomenal quarter for crypto.
Coinbase remains one of the most fascinating companies in the world and, in our opinion, undervalued. We will also publish a series of Coinbase-related predictions next week.
Prediction 4: More money will be settled in stablecoins than in Visa.
Result: Incorrect
Global stablecoin settlements reached $5.1 trillion in the first six months of 2024, up sharply from the same period last year. But they have yet to catch up with Visa, which settled $6.5 trillion in the same period. Close, but not yet.
Prediction 5: JPMorgan will tokenize a fund and launch it on-chain as Wall Street prepares to tokenize real-world assets.
Result: Incorrect
I really hope this dream comes true. It would be a sweet irony to see JPMorgan (whose CEO once raged about Washington “shutting down” crypto) tokenize its own fund.
We’re so close! Wall Street tokenized funds are a big theme for 2024. BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Guggenheim, UBS, Societe Generale, and others have all taken this step. JPMorgan has invested heavily in tokenization, reinventing its own tokenization platform and calling it the “next generation of financial infrastructure.” But the company didn’t actually launch a fund, so we can’t claim victory.
Prediction 6: Ethereum revenue will more than double to $5 billion as users flock to crypto apps.
Result: Incorrect
We were off base earlier. Ethereum-based application activity surges in 2024, but revenue will likely end the year slightly below last year’s $2 billion. Why? Ethereum’s March “Dencun” upgrade cut network fees by 99%. We ultimately think this is good for the network, but the short-term hit to revenue is challenging.
Prediction 7: Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans in new ways.
Result: Incorrect
This didn’t happen, but it’s still an area to watch in 2025. Taylor has reportedly been concerned about whether NFTs are securities. If we get more clarity on regulation of NFTs in the coming year, this question may be back on the agenda.
Prediction 8: AI assistants will use cryptocurrencies for online payments, confirming cryptocurrencies as the “native money of the internet.”
Result: True
In July, legendary venture capitalist Marc Andreessen donated $50,000 worth of Bitcoin to an AI bot called Truth Terminal. The bot ultimately helped popularize a meme coin — Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) — currently valued at $674 million. We suspect AI bots will make widespread use of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in the coming years. While the GOAT experiment was crazy, it provided an amazing proof of concept.
Prediction 9: Over $100 million will be invested in prediction markets as they become the new “killer app” for cryptocurrencies.
Result: True
Of all our predictions, this is the one I’m most proud of.
In December 2023, few people had heard of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users can bet on the outcomes of global events. But we were fans of the platform and thought it would take off as the US election approached. And boy were we right: total bets on the platform jumped from $8 million at the time of our prediction to over $500 million at its peak. Polymarket became a household name in the process. It also proved particularly prescient in the 2024 election.
In our 2025 predictions article, we’ll predict the next breakthrough crypto application.
Prediction #10: A major upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain will bring average transaction costs to less than $0.01, paving the way for more mainstream use cases.
Result: Correct
I’m going to do the math on this one. The average transaction cost on many Ethereum layer 2 networks has dropped by over 90% year-over-year and is currently hovering between $0.01 and $0.02. But it fell below $0.01 this summer, and I believe we’ll reach that level again soon as the underlying technology continues to improve. Sub-cent transactions on major blockchains will change the world.
Additional Prediction: One-quarter of financial advisors will allocate crypto in client accounts by the end of 2024.
Results: To be determined
Every year, we survey financial advisors to find out how many hold crypto in client accounts. In 2023, only 11% said “yes.” The year-end 2024 survey is still in progress, so we don’t know yet if we’ll hit the 25% mark. One potential headwind: Large, large banks like Wells Fargo, UBS, and Merrill Lynch have yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. But we think it’s a matter of when, not if.
Conclusion
So how are we doing? Six right, four wrong, and one up in the air. Given how aggressive our predictions were — a doubling of Bitcoin price, a surge in prediction markets, a 99% drop in Ethereum fees, all in a rapidly changing space — we’ll take it.
But one thing is for sure: we’ll be even more right in 2025. Stay tuned.
Brian
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