Source: Web3 Insights
The past few years have been a rollercoaster of ups and downs. If you survived this bear market, congratulations. If you are new to the cryptocurrency market and are just dipping your toes into it for the first time, you couldn't have picked a better time to take the leap. 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most explosive years in cryptocurrency’s short history.
Cryptocurrency is a turbulent sea of opportunity, and only one’s rational mind can successfully navigate it. The process of drowning out the noise, ignoring the FUD and FOMO is a battle that even the most grizzled cryptocurrency veterans go through, and may be the most important factor in keeping your treasure-laden ship afloat. Most ships are sunk in the attempt, but the few that reach Valhalla are the few who enjoy (and keep) their life-changing harvest.
Previous Forecast (August 2023)
August 6, 2023: BTC at $29,000, ETH at $1,825< /em>
I last tried to predict the direction of the cryptocurrency market in early August 2023, and it has worked very well so far. Granted, many of these are still “work in progress” predictions, but for the vast majority, the past 6 months have not changed my view.
There is no crystal ball, but logic and rational analysis can usually provide a fairly accurate explanation of what is about to happen. You can use logic to paint a vision of the future, but ultimately it’s just an appearance. Here are highlights of what I predict will happen by fall 2025, and what I still believe is likely to happen:
Top Narratives : Games, Launchpad, all-in-one wallet
BTC at halving: 55,000–65,000 USD
ETH minus Half $3,000 — $3,500
BTC New ATH: $185,000 — $250,000 (low 12-16x)
-
ETH of new ATH: $18K — $25K (20x — 28x)
Total cryptocurrency market cap: $7–10T (3x)
< /li>2026 Bear Market Down (BTC) 70–75%
2024 Rate Hike Pivot and Quantitative Easing
General Bull Market Timeline: “A full bull market is expected to begin in June/July 2024 and continue into 2025, approaching September/October in the fall of 2025 It gradually disappears every month."
2024 Forecast:
The trends in the next 12-18 months will be very exaggerated. I continue to believe that this will be the largest and most explosive bull market to date based on capital inflows and the associated growth in total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Here are highlights of some of the more impactful predictions for 2024:
1. ETH will outperform BTC by 2024.
ETH dominance and the associated ETH/BTC ratio will rise steadily throughout the year, accelerating upon the approval of a BTC ETF. Currently ETH/BTC is at 0.052 and ETH dominance is only 16.87%. I expect ETH/BTC to eventually peak around 0.1-0.12 BTC late in the cycle, effectively double Bitcoin, and peak at 20% dominance as altcoin dominance continues to grow.
2. Both BTC and ETH will significantly surpass previous ATH (EOY target BTC 85K–90K, ETH 7,500–8,500 USD)
Most people are still suffering from post-traumatic stress from the bear market Look at Bitcoin and Ethereum through the lens of barriers. I believe that the vast majority of influential price predictions are too conservative, and that both BTC and ETH will significantly surpass their previous ATH by the end of 2024, with a parabolic explosion in early 2025.
3. After ETF approval, BTC’s dominance will decrease.
Bitcoin’s appeal remains highly rooted in speculation. Once ETFs are approved and more gradual flows fail to meet speculative expectations, funds will move to ETH, L2, and other alternatives. This will cause the altcoin market to significantly outperform BTC for the remainder of the bull run, and BTC’s dominance will decline. NOTE: When a new bear market arrives, alternative currencies will also crash and burn even more spectacularly.
4. Both BTC and ETH spot ETFs will be launched in 2024.
Self-explanatory and not so counterintuitive, these are substantial developments that will forever change the cryptocurrency landscape and open the door to the vast majority of "norms". While I expect initial capital inflows to be lower than expected, in the long term the capital inflows will be substantial and the market is changing. It would also serve as a one-way door to lock in a large amount of already squeezed circulating supply, and a vehicle for passive inflows into pension funds and managed funds. Take a deep dive here.
5. Compared with Layer 1, Layer 2 will gain considerable market share.
The reality is that the age-old argument that transaction costs for many L1s are too high is moot. They ignore the key fact that ETH has evolved into a settlement layer rather than a transaction layer. Layer 2 is just a mass buyer of Layer 1 block space, the future of ETH is for the storage and settlement of wealth, while Layer 2 and Layer 3 allow for transaction layers that can be customized for any purpose. Therefore, Tier 2 will gain significant TVL and daily active users, which will benefit the trading (L2) and settlement (L1) layers, where the vast majority of activity occurs on Tier 2.
6. The total stablecoin circulation will reach 750B to 1 trillion US dollars.
Stablecoins are like the fuel of the crypto ecosystem. One of the best indicators of a healthy bull market is the printing rate of new stablecoins. USDT’s market capitalization has grown from approximately $66B at the beginning of 2023 to $91B by the end of the year, an increase of nearly 40%. Granted, some of this is absorbing the market cap of other stablecoins like USDC, but this number will accelerate significantly after the ETF is approved and the bull market matures.
7. An important sovereign entity will announce the accumulation of Bitcoin reserves.
Hashrate has increased significantly even throughout the bear market, reaching a staggering 570M TH/S at the time of writing. Much of the growth is not attributable to public companies, and it is highly likely that price-agnostic entities will be adding hashrate even as the halving approaches and profitability is set to drop by half.
8. The same FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) will be recycled.
Tether collapse, China Bitcoin ban, blah blah blah. Cryptocurrencies can slow down, but they never stop. Prepare for FUD now so you can easily ignore it and avoid panic selling.
9. NFT will make a comeback.
NFTs are all but dead. Interest in some major projects is resurgent, but full-scale NFT mania will return in this bull run. NFTs may be hibernating, but when they wake up from their slumber, they’re going to have some parabolic moves.
10. Aggregators will take over cryptocurrencies.
Most DEXs, DeFi platforms, bridges, and markets will be used through third-party integrations... aggregators. Protocols like Zerion, Metamask, 1inch, etc. will become primarily user-facing platforms, gaining traction and capacity, while DEXs like Uniswap and Pancakeswap, bridges like Stargate or Wormhole, etc. will all be integrated into these protocols on the backend.
Conclusion:
After the better part of four years of non-stop research, I fundamentally understand the cryptocurrency market. I have a deep, long-term belief that cryptocurrencies will one day take over the financial world and absorb the vast majority of wealth in circulation, and this belief has helped me weather some terrible storms.
It is important to understand the technology and industry you are investing in, this is always an evolving and ongoing process. In an emerging technology like cryptocurrency, it is developing so fast that it requires constant attention and research to keep up with the times. My writing and your reading are all part of this process (for both of us?)
The next 18 months will be the most critical in the history of cryptocurrencies, and if you are currently Read this article and you’ll be well-prepared to build life-changing wealth and achieve what 95% of people will never achieve… Get off the fiat hamster wheel we’re all caught in the proverbial rat race.
Wish you good luck and see you in the next article!
JinseFinance
Bernice
Brian
Edmund
YouQuan