Source: Delphi Digital; Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
- BTC continues to fit Delphi's cycle strategy, which predicts BTC to hit a new high in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- So far, every new high for BTC has coincided with a monthly RSI breakout of >70. The previous bull run did not stop until the monthly RSI broke 90.
- According to the monthly price regression channel, BTC is still below the 1-2 standard deviation trend that indicates a top.
- Institutional interest and a relaxed regulatory environment may be the driving force behind this bull run.
- Solana will continue to surpass Ethereum for one simple reason: superior user experience and better content. No token approval or wrapped tokens are required. On Solana, it just works.
- SVM is the fastest growing alt-vm ecosystem, helping to enhance network effects. In addition, Anza, Firedancer, and improved wallet infrastructure will continue to improve the user experience.
-@aeyakovenko The vision of increasing bandwidth and reducing latency can help Solana maintain its advantage as competition intensifies.
- We believe NFT will make a comeback through a mix of extreme sentiment and mismatched fundamentals.
- While tokens are easier to trade, NFTs allow uniqueness to be encoded on-chain. Heterogeneous assets such as fine art and wine have the potential to be tokenized as NFTs.
- NFTs have also experienced some major wealth creation events.
@pudgypenguins, @MiladyCult, and @Azuki airdrops may trigger other NFT projects to follow suit.
- NFTs are also more suitable for retail investors. Not everyone likes to trade. NFTs are a friendly alternative to show culture and status.
- DeAI will fundamentally change the way we interact with DeFi. Agents will replace the front end, help users trade, exchange, find returns, and simplify the way we interact with natural language processing.
- Most capital allocation decisions in the future will be made automatically by agents.
@griffaindotcom is a pioneer in this regard, but other DeAI projects are also gaining attention, such as @HeyAnonai.
- The future is unlikely to be PVP human transactions, but will be mediated by agents. Agents are able to monitor the market 24/7 and process more data.
- Trading will become a race for computing power and unique data sets.
- By 2025, at least three agent frameworks will become decacorns.
- High-throughput chains will open up new opportunities and experiments for 2025.
- The main projects we are closely following are @HyperliquidX, @SuiNetwork, and @monad_xyz, but there are other chains (such as @berachain) worth paying attention to.
- @megaeth_labs is also a project worth paying attention to, but we believe MegaETH will compete with L2 rather than L1 for market share.
- A large DePIN project successfully achieves self-sufficiency, which drives the rating of the entire industry up and triggers a reflexive rise in the "fundamentals" of other industries.
- Although the competition is fierce, DePin has the potential to disrupt wireless services (@helium), network infrastructure (@doublezero), maps (@Hivemapper), healthcare, and grid operations.
- zkVM will improve interoperability between rollups, enabling seamless interaction between chains.
- zkVM will greatly expand the developer market because developers will be able to develop zk applications in other languages such as Rust.
- AI-driven development tools can improve the productivity of game developers.
- AI NPCs are under development, and projects such as InWorldAI aim to become AI NPC service providers for games.
- Open source initiatives such as @virtuals_io Game Framework and Eliza's integration with Unreal and Unity may be game-changers for AI games.
- 2025 is the year when crypto-native applications can fully invest in on-chain finance.
- zkTLS will allow sensitive web2 data to be transferred on-chain while maintaining privacy. This opens up many possibilities such as personalized proxies, trust scores, etc.
- Revenue sharing stablecoins will expand as incentives between issuers and distributors are aligned.
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