Less than 1 day before halving: Let’s hear what the big guys think?

On April 18, 2024, Google Trends data showed that the search popularity for "Bitcoin halving" hit a new high. Nigeria, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Cyprus are most interested in the Bitcoin halving.

The halving is less than one day away. What do well-known institutions, users, and KOLs think about the halving?

Coinbase

According to the Coinbase x Glassnode Q2 report, compared to past halvings, The current market dynamics of Bitcoin have significantly matured, which may reduce the direct impact of newly produced Bitcoins on market prices. This change is primarily driven by increased institutional demand and widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, with key differences including:

While miners add about 900 Bitcoins to the market every day, Bitcoin ETFs tend to buy more, thereby significantly affecting supply levels and market liquidity;

In addition, ETFs may generate large-scale capital inflows and outflows, thereby affecting market volatility. These changes can significantly affect price stability and market sentiment, often independently of traditional supply and demand constraints.

In short, ETF flows have had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s availability and demand and will continue to do so for the foreseeable This trend will continue in the future.

The report also states that spot Bitcoin ETFs are the fastest-growing ETFs ever. A small allocation to cryptocurrency can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns. From April 2019 to March 2024, the traditional 60/40 return was 33.3%. But adding just 3% of cryptocurrencies increases returns to 52.9%; adding 5% of cryptocurrencies increases returns to 67.0%.

Binance

Binance elaborated on the following predictions in a recent report:

1. Bitcoin halving aims to regulate the supply of new BTC tokens, which has historically affected token supply dynamics and market sentiment. and adoption.

2. Halvings tend to increase Bitcoin’s popularity, leading to an increase in price and adoption. They also stimulate discussions related to blockchain technology, the dynamics of the Bitcoin network, and crypto as a distinct asset class.

3. Although historical patterns show that in the months following the halving event, BTC prices increased and expanded adoption rate, but it’s important to note that the upcoming halving in April 2024 is already proving to be unprecedented in several important ways.

Binance’s survey

According to Binance’s latest research, in Investors are increasingly interested in cryptocurrencies ahead of the global Bitcoin halving event. The survey of more than 2,000 Australian cryptocurrency investors found that more than 80% of respondents believe the upcoming halving will be positive for the industry, while more than half expect Bitcoin prices to rise directly as a result .

Ben Rose, general manager of Binance Australia and New Zealand, said that the halving has had a positive impact on BTC trading, and almost 80% of Binance Australian users plan to Increase their BTC holdings in the near future.

Grayscale

According to the analysis of asset management company Grayscale Reports suggest that fundamental changes in Bitcoin’s supply and demand balance could have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency’s price, especially with the upcoming halving event.

Historically, halving events are usually followed by a cycle of rising prices. However, a new factor, namely ETFs, will also impact Bitcoin’s performance during this April’s halving event. The report states: “In addition to overall positive on-chain fundamentals, Bitcoin’s market structure is favorable for price post-halving.”

The Grayscale report pointed out that the current amount of new coins issued in each block (mining Reward) is 6.25 Bitcoins, which is approximately $14 billion per year based on a price of $43,000. In other words, to maintain current prices, $14 billion worth of buying pressure would need to be generated over the same period. “After the halving, these demands will be reduced by half: the issuance of new coins per block is 3.125 Bitcoins, which is equivalent to reducing it to $7 billion per year, effectively reducing the selling pressure. ”

After the halving, the mining reward per block will be reduced to 3.125 Bitcoins. In order to cope with cost pressure, miners usually sell More Bitcoin is in stock, thereby increasing supply and driving down the price.

Grayscale said that the nine Bitcoin spot ETF products recently launched by Wall Street may "serve as a hedging force against the selling pressure of miners." The report states: “Bitcoin ETFs could significantly absorb selling pressure, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure by providing a stable source of new demand, which would be beneficial for prices.”

Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs warned its clients in a report that Don’t read too much into Bitcoin’s historical halving cycle. The report states:“Historically, the first three halvings have been accompanied by increases in Bitcoin prices, although the time taken to reach all-time highs has varied significantly. Given the respective current macro environments, the past should be viewed with caution Extrapolation of cycles and the impact of halving ”

Bitwise

Bitwise Asset Management said that historically, after halving In a month, BTC price trends tend to be unsatisfactory. In an article on April 16,Bitwise pointed out that BTC price action was flat in the month after the previous three halvings, but in the following year, its price rose by at least triple digits.

Among them, in the month after the 2012 halving, BTC rose by 9%, but in the following year, it Soared 8,839%. A similar situation occurred during the 2016 halving: BTC fell 10% a month later and rose 285% in 2017, reaching a peak of $20,000; similarly, in the month after the 2020 halving, BTC rose 6 %, then rose 548% over the next year. Bitwise wrote: "The data is limited, but reveals an interesting pattern, where market prices tend to underestimate the long-term impact of halvings."

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said in a research note on Tuesday that recent weakness in mining stocks provides investors with an attractive opportunity ahead of the Bitcoin halving. A strong entry point.

The report noted that Bitcoin is up 43% year to date and 130% over the past six months as "there appears to be some of the typical post-halving rally." It was pulled up in advance.” Bitcoin’s quadrennial reward halving, which will slow the growth of Bitcoin’s supply, is expected to occur around April 19-20.

The bank said it is particularly bullish on overrated Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Iris Energy (IREN) as the stocks offer attractive relative valuations. "As the Bitcoin halving approaches, we expect increased volatility and trading volume in both Bitcoin and mining stocks," the analysts wrote.

Bloomberg

Bloomberg issued an article stating that Bitcoin’s next “halving” is expected to occur around April 20, when miners will The number of Bitcoins that can be earned by verifying transactions has been reduced by half.This Bitcoin “halving” may have an impact of approximately 10 billion US dollars on cryptocurrency miners. In addition, increasing competition from artificial intelligence companies for preferential electricity rates will also lead to a decline in the revenue of Bitcoin mining companies after the cost soared.

Bernstein

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein ’s analysts expect Bitcoin to resume its bullish trajectory after the halving and reiterated a target of $150,000 by the end of 2025.  

Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday:“We expect Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to decrease. In addition, we believe that the integration of spot Bitcoin ETH and exchanges and RIA will continue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin by 2025. , Bitcoin will hit a cycle high of $150,000”

Crypto.com

The CEO of cryptocurrency company Crypto.com recently expressed his views on the Bitcoin halving event. He noted thatduring the Bitcoin halving, the market may experience some selling pressure on Bitcoin, but stressed that the halving event will support Bitcoin prices in the long term.