Author: Stacy Muur, Crypto KOL; Translation: 0xxz@黄金财经
Historically, the memecoin season marks the end of the bull market cycle.
According to the research report on Memecoin investment recently published by Messari, it is time to take profits.
The key insights of the research report are as follows:
The chart below is the most worthy of attention.
It compares the correlation between the market capitalization of Ethereum and Memecoin and finds an interesting pattern:
Infrastructure skyrocketed → Memes skyrocketed → Memes plummeted → a broader downward trend.
This is very logical: due to factors such as liquidity, risk-reward profile, and technological breakthroughs, cryptocurrency bull markets usually start with BTC or smart contract platforms.
These assets signal that "cryptocurrency is not dead yet", attracting speculation and development.
Then speculation shifts to riskier assets such as memecoins, which may see explosive gains.
However, memecoins tend to crash first, marking the end of the speculative wave of crypto assets.
So, what kind of market are we in now?
The pump season for the leading memecoins may be (almost) over.
New memecoins like $BORPA, $LUMI or moonthat may print money, but overall, investors are starting to take profits, indicating that the speculative cycle is about to end.
pump.fun is another confirmation.
In their research, Messari recommends the following investment framework based on this pattern:
1. Buy meme when classic DeFi/cryptocurrency games start to rise;
2. When memecoin falls beyond the threshold, move the entire portfolio to cash and stop trading.
Memecoin has traditionally been viewed as a non-serious late-stage speculative asset characterized by explosive returns and sharp declines.
However, the market continues to adapt, and the future profitability of this strategy is not guaranteed.
Importantly, according to this framework, we are now likely post-bull market rather than pre-bear market.
Will the bull market be short-lived? In fact, there is no guarantee that bull and bear markets will last for a long time.
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