Powell's statement and the US regulatory framework: Stablecoin compliance outbreak

Powell's public recognition of stablecoins and the formation of the US regulatory framework mark the official entry of the crypto payment industry into the "compliance explosion period". This policy shift not only breaks the long-standing regulatory deadlock, but also reconstructs the underlying logic of crypto payments through institutional innovation - a qualitative change from "barbaric growth" to "orderly expansion" is taking place. The following analysis is conducted from three dimensions: policy breakthroughs, technological iterations, and market structure: 1. Policy breakthroughs: a paradigm shift from "risk warning" to "active embrace" 1. Three milestones in the U.S. regulatory framework 2. Legislative level 3. The Stablecoin Act, which came into effect in April 2025, explicitly requires issuers to obtain a federal license and maintain 1:1 transparency of their U.S. dollar reserves. This rule directly solves the long-standing "reserve black box" problem of USDT, and gives stablecoins the same legal status as traditional money market funds for the first time.

• Implementation level

  : Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement at the Chicago Economic Club released a clear signal: "In the future, the rules related to banks and cryptocurrencies may be relaxed." This means that banks can participate in stablecoin custody, transaction clearing and other businesses through compliant channels, paving the way for traditional financial institutions to enter the market.

• Technical level

  : The joint draft of the U.S. Treasury and the SEC requires that stablecoin issuers must access the central bank digital currency bridge (such as the Federal Reserve's Project Hamilton) to achieve real-time settlement between stablecoins and CBDCs. This design incorporates stablecoins into traditional financial infrastructure and solves the problem of "final settlement" in cross-border payments.

2. The "Matthew Effect" of Global Regulation

• The EU's "protectionism" strategy

  : The MiCA Act imposes strict restrictions on non-euro stablecoins, and stablecoins with a daily trading volume of more than 2 million euros will be forced to suspend issuance. This policy directly weakens the penetration of US dollar stablecoins in the European market, but instead promotes the accelerated development of euro stablecoins (such as Circle's EUROC).

• Asia's "pilot first" model

  : The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) issued licenses to Paxos and StraitsX, allowing them to issue stablecoins pegged to the Singapore dollar or G10 currencies (Sina Finance). This "regulatory sandbox" model not only controls risks, but also provides a testing ground for cross-border payment innovation.

• Demand for "currency substitution" in emerging markets

  : In countries with high inflation such as Argentina and Turkey, the average daily transaction volume of USDT has exceeded 3 times the transaction volume of local legal currency ATM machines (Sina Finance). After the relaxation of supervision, compliant stablecoins may become the main tool for residents of these countries to circumvent capital controls.

2. Technological iteration: Evolution from "payment tool" to "financial operating system"

1. "Infrastructure" of stablecoins

• Reserve management

  : The "Reserve Chain" launched by Circle puts USDC's asset reserve data on the chain in real time, and users can verify the compliance of each transaction through the blockchain browser (Sina Finance). This transparent design completely solves the trust crisis of traditional stablecoins.

• Clearing Network

  : The "Stablecoin Direct Settlement" (SDS) system, a collaboration between Visa and USDC, can complete cross-border payments within 3 seconds, with a handling fee of only 1/10 of the traditional SWIFT (Sina Finance). The system has been piloted in Southeast Asian cross-border e-commerce, and it is expected that the processing scale will exceed US$10 billion in 2025.

• Compliance Engine

  : Chainalysis's "Stablecoin Compliance Module" can automatically identify suspicious transactions and trigger KYC/AML reviews in real time. This tool reduces the compliance costs of stablecoin issuers by 60%, while keeping the risk of money laundering below 0.01%.

2. "Scenario Revolution" of Crypto Payment

• Supply Chain Finance

  : Maersk and USDC cooperate on the "Shipping Settlement Platform", which automatically completes freight payment and bill of lading verification through smart contracts, shortening the cross-border logistics settlement cycle from 7 days to 4 hours (Sina Finance).

• Salary Payment

  : Philippines' crypto payment platform Coins.ph launched a "stable currency salary card", allowing companies to pay salaries in USDC, and employees can directly exchange fiat currency at local convenience stores. The service has covered 1 million Filipino blue-collar workers (Sina Finance).

• DeFi native payment

  : The "stablecoin flash loan" function launched by Aave allows users to borrow USDC without collateral to complete arbitrage transactions, with an annualized interest rate of only 0.5% (Sina Finance).

III. Market structure: Competition upgrade from "traffic competition" to "ecological positioning"

1. Construction of "moat" of leading players

• "Compliance barriers" of USDC

  : Circle has obtained money service licenses in 50 states in the United States and cooperated with Bank of New York Mellon to custody reserves. This "full license + top custody" model makes it the first choice for institutional investors.

• USDT's "Technical Sinking": Tether's "TRC-20 USDT" has a transfer cost of only $0.01 on TRON, and the transaction confirmation time is less than 5 seconds (Sina Finance). This design has attracted small payment needs in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Africa.

• DAI's "decentralized advantage"

  : MakerDAO has increased the stability of DAI to 99.9% by introducing Real World Assets (RWA) collateral, making it the "liquidity cornerstone" of the DeFi protocol (Sina Finance).

2. The "differentiated breakthrough" of emerging forces

• The "risk reconstruction" of algorithmic stablecoins

  : FRAX, launched by Frax Finance, uses the "partial collateral + algorithmic adjustment" mechanism to reduce the collateral ratio from 100% to 50% while maintaining the $1 anchor, releasing more liquidity (Sina Finance).

• "Value interconnection" of cross-chain stablecoins

  : mUSDC launched by Multichain can cross chains in real time among 10 chains including Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, etc., solving the "inter-chain island" problem of stablecoins.

• "Compliance balance" of privacy stablecoins

  : ZUSD launched by Zcash uses zero-knowledge proof technology to achieve privacy protection for both parties to the transaction while meeting KYC requirements.

IV. Risks and Challenges: The "Reefs" Behind the Prosperity

1. The "Compliance Maze" of Regulatory Arbitrage

• Jurisdictional Conflict

  : USDC is subject to BitLicense in New York State, while a more relaxed STO regulatory framework applies in Wyoming. This difference may lead to "regulatory arbitrage" by issuers and weaken policy consistency.

• Cross-border regulatory coordination

  : The EU requires that stablecoin transactions must be conducted through local exchanges, while the United States allows offshore transactions. This split may give rise to a "regulatory arbitrage market" and increase systemic risks.

2. The "long tail effect" of technical risks

• Oracle attacks

  : The manipulation of the GMX oracle in 2024 caused the USDC clearing system to collapse, exposing the stablecoin's dependence on external data.

• Smart contract vulnerability

  : In March 2025, USDC's cross-chain contract was exploited by hackers, resulting in a loss of approximately $20 million. This incident highlights the security risks of multi-chain deployment.

3. The "centralization concerns" of the market structure

• The "monopoly" of the top stablecoins

  : USDT, USDC, and BUSD occupy 95% of the global stablecoin market, forming an "oligopoly" pattern. This centralization may lead to a market liquidity crisis (Sina Finance).

• "Death spiral" of algorithmic stablecoins

  : The UST collapse in 2023 proved that algorithmic stablecoins that rely too much on market confidence have systemic risks. Regulators may impose stricter capital requirements on such projects.

5. Future Outlook: The ultimate leap from "alternative solutions" to "infrastructure"

1. Technology Roadmap

• 2025-2026

  : Cross-chain protocols (such as Polygon Supernets) will realize "frictionless cross-chain" of stablecoins, and transaction confirmation time will be shortened to less than 1 second.

• 2027-2028

  : The threat of quantum computing has given rise to "quantum-resistant stablecoins", which use Lattice-based Cryptography to ensure asset security.

• 2029-2030

  : The emergence of AI-driven "adaptive stablecoins" that can automatically adjust collateral rates and issuance strategies based on macroeconomic data.

2. Market size forecast

• Payment scenarios

  : In 2025, the scale of global encrypted payments will exceed US$500 billion, of which stablecoins will account for more than 80% (Tencent).

• DeFi scenario

  : In 2026, the amount of stablecoins locked in DeFi protocols will reach 1.2 trillion US dollars, becoming the most liquid asset class (Sina Finance).

• Cross-border scenario

  : In 2027, the share of stablecoins in cross-border payments will reach 15%, mainly replacing SWIFT and Western Union (Sina Finance).

3. Direction of regulatory evolution

• Global unified standards

  ：IMF may launch a "White Paper on Global Regulation of Stablecoins" to coordinate policy differences among countries.

• Real-time regulatory technology

  ：The Federal Reserve's "Crypto Payment Monitoring System" (CPS) will achieve real-time tracking of stablecoin transactions, increasing the efficiency of money laundering monitoring by 90%.

• Investor protection

  : The SEC may require stablecoin issuers to purchase "reserve insurance" to cover user losses caused by asset misappropriation.

Conclusion

Powell's statement and the implementation of the US regulatory framework mark that the crypto payment industry has officially entered the "compliance dividend period". This change is not only a victory for technological innovation, but also a deep coupling of regulatory wisdom and market demand. For practitioners, future competition will no longer be a "traffic competition", but a triple game ofcompliance capabilities, technical depth, and ecological integration. Only those projects that can find a balance between "regulatory red lines" and "innovation boundaries" can have the last laugh in this industry revolution.