华尔街著名多头、Fundstrat Global Advisors 管理合伙人 Tom Lee 对比特币的潜力仍持乐观态度，预测比特币价格到今年年底可能达到 15 万美元。尽管比特币价格最近徘徊在 6 万至 7 万美元之间，但 Lee 认为，比特币现货 ETF 的批准和 Mt. Gox 分销问题的解决将推动价格大幅上涨。
比特币近期表现疲软的部分原因是人们对 Mt. Gox 分销问题的担忧。前最大的比特币交易所 Mt. Gox 在 2014 年遭到黑客攻击，损失了 85 万比特币。经过长达十年的破产程序后，Mt. Gox 的受托人宣布从 7 月开始向债权人分发 142,000 BTC 和 143,000 BCH，预计 10 月完成。
投资者担心，已经等待了十多年的债权人可能会在收到比特币后不久就出售，从而可能导致市场抛售。
Tom Lee 分析：比特币可能正受到Mt. Gox 在7 月开始进行分配的影响，多年来这一直是个巨大隐忧，如果我投资了加密货币，知道最大隐忧之一将在7 月消失，我认为，这实际上是期待下半年大幅反弹的理由，因此，我认为15 万美元今年仍有可能。
Galaxy Digital 研究主管 Alex Thorn 表示，影响可能没有预期的那么严重。据 Thorn 称，大约 75% 的债权人选择提前还款，接受 10% 的减免，这意味着只有大约 95,000 BTC 将用于提前付款，其余的将在更长的时间内分发。
尽管存在这些担忧，但历史趋势和投资者情绪仍然是积极的。
CNBC 强调，比特币通常每年在短时间内经历大幅价格上涨。据 Lee 称，比特币的大部分年度涨幅发生在短短 10 天内。剔除这些表现最佳的日子会导致年度回报率为负，这强调了投资者把握市场时机的重要性。
比特币的第四次减半发生在 4 月，这是导致看涨前景的另一个因素。从历史上看，比特币往往会在减半事件发生后约 18 个月创下历史新高。这种模式支持了 Lee 对年底前价格大幅上涨的预测。
自 6 月中旬以来，市场一直对贝莱德申请比特币现货 ETF 感到兴奋。此举推动比特币突破 30,000 美元大关，市场参与者对贝莱德获得批准的可能性很高持乐观态度。如果这只 ETF 获得批准，预计将为比特币市场注入大量资金。
Tom Lee 领导的 Fundstrat Global Advisors 最近发布了一份报告，重点介绍了比特币现货 ETF 对市场的潜在影响。目前，比特币的每日需求和挖矿奖励平衡在约 2500 万美元左右。然而，现货 ETF 的引入可能会极大地改变这种平衡。
根据报告，如果现货 ETF 获得批准，它可能产生 1.25 亿美元的每日需求。与目前每天 2500 万美元的供应量相比，这种需求的大幅增加可能会导致比特币价格大幅上涨。Fundstrat 预测，2024 年 4 月减半之前比特币的清算价格可能在 14 万至 18 万美元之间。
渣打银行也有类似的乐观看法，但时间表略有不同。他们的分析师预计，到 2025 年，比特币的价格可能达到 12 万美元，这得益于矿工在中期内持有新铸造的比特币。
与此同时，彭博 ETF 分析师 Athanasios Psarofagis 和 James Seyffart 也给出了乐观的预测。基于加拿大比特币现货 ETF 的成功，他们估计美国比特币现货 ETF 可以随着时间的推移积累 540 亿美元。
比特币现货ETF的预期和整体市场的复苏使比特币矿业公司受益匪浅。许多机构已经入市，相关股票也获得了可观的收益。
截至 2023 年 6 月，前九大上市比特币矿业公司的股价平均上涨了257.14%，表现优于比特币本身。
来源：Cointelegraph
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