Author: Nancy, PANews
As October came to a close, listed companies successively released their third-quarter earnings reports. Robinhood, the popular US brokerage firm, delivered a better-than-expected financial report, with both revenue and profit hitting record highs. Its diversification strategy is showing initial success, accelerating its transformation into a fintech company. However, despite the impressive performance, Robinhood's stock price bucked the trend and fell after the earnings release.
Cryptocurrency trading is the core growth source, and prediction trading is becoming a new growth engine
In the third quarter of 2025, Robinhood delivered a stellar performance. Total platform revenue reached $1.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 100%; net profit reached $556 million, a year-on-year increase of 271%; diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.61, a year-on-year increase of 259%. Meanwhile, 2.5 million new funds accounts were added this quarter, bringing the total to 26.8 million.
... Data shows that after years of fading early benefits from commission-free trading, Robinhood has clearly found a new growth path, transforming from a single trading platform into a diversified fintech group. Despite strong performance, results still fell short of market expectations, and its stock price declined after the earnings release, reflecting investor concerns about the sustainability of its future profitability. Structurally, Robinhood's current revenue primarily comes from trading revenue (57%), net interest income (36%), and other subscription-based revenue (7%). Cryptocurrency trading was the core growth driver this quarter, generating $268 million in revenue, a year-over-year increase of over 300%, accounting for more than one-third of trading revenue. Robinhood expanded its crypto business this year, acquiring the crypto exchange Bitstamp and partnering with prediction market Kalshi, which were two major drivers of this quarter's revenue breakthrough and listed as one of its main business lines with annualized revenue exceeding $100 million. The recovery in the crypto market boosted retail and institutional activity, the consolidation of Bitstamp contributed to institutional and derivatives trading, and the launch of the prediction market attracted a large number of new users, all contributing to the growth of crypto trading revenue. However, crypto revenue still slightly fell short of market expectations of $287.2 million. The addition of Bitstamp significantly increased trading volume. Financial reports show that in October, Robinhood's platform saw over $32 billion in notional cryptocurrency trading volume, with Bitstamp contributing $18 billion (primarily institutional trading). Going forward, Bitstamp will become Robinhood's main platform for advancing its tokenized stock business. However, while institutional trading on Bitstamp drove a surge in trading volume, its relatively low fees limited its actual revenue contribution, raising concerns about revenue growth. Meanwhile, the prediction market business also grew rapidly. In the third quarter, Robinhood's prediction contract trading volume doubled quarter-over-quarter to 2.3 billion contracts (each contract worth $1), becoming the third most active trading category after stocks and options. October trading volume reached $2.5 billion, with the platform expected to profit approximately $25 million that month. Besides crypto and prediction markets, Robinhood's stock trading revenue grew by 132%, and options trading revenue grew by 50%. However, these transaction businesses are generally considered highly cyclical. Rothschild & Co. Redburn analyst Charles Bendit gave Robinhood a "sell" rating, believing that while the company has performed well in product execution, current performance may reflect a cyclical peak, while market valuations imply unproven long-term stability. Robinhood has become a dark horse in this year's S&P 500 and is preparing for banking and investment businesses. By 2025, Robinhood is expected to be one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500, with its share price rising by more than 222% year-to-date, far exceeding the Nasdaq 100. Behind the strong share price is not only market recognition of Robinhood's growth story, but also its consistently better-than-expected fundamental performance. In fact, since launching its share buyback program in 2024, Robinhood has repurchased approximately $810 million worth of shares. Meanwhile, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev's long-term incentive plan (which would grant each of the two founders 13.8 million shares if the stock price reaches $101.50 per share in 2025) was fully vested in the third quarter, and his current annual cash compensation is only $40,000. Robinhood's strong financial performance has also provided ample cash flow support for its diversified business expansion. The financial report shows that as of the end of the third quarter, Robinhood held $4.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and shareholders' equity of approximately $8.57 billion. Adjusted operating expenses for the full year 2025 are projected to be approximately $2.28 billion, slightly higher than previously expected, primarily due to increased employee bonuses resulting from better-than-expected performance, and continued investment in new businesses and technology platforms. Although operating expenses increased by 31% year-over-year in Q3, revenue more than doubled, allowing profit margins to continue to improve. Robinhood is also optimistic about its future financial performance, noting a very strong start to the fourth quarter. In October, monthly trading volumes for stocks, options, prediction markets, and futures on the platform all reached record highs, as did margin balances. Currently, Robinhood has 11 business lines with annualized revenues of $100 million or more, and plans to launch more asset classes in the future. "In terms of product strategy, we plan to build Robinhood into a family financial hub," Vlad Tenev revealed in the earnings call. This stems from systematic adjustments made to the organization, culture, and technology over the past few years, resulting in a significant improvement in the speed of product execution and iteration. The company has established a core objective of "rapid product delivery," and the platform is currently vigorously promoting multiple business lines. For example, in the prediction business, Robinhood's prediction market segment is entering a phase of rapid expansion, currently offering over 1,000 contracts covering sports, finance, entertainment, culture, and technology. The company is in discussions with overseas regulatory bodies, including the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), to explore the feasibility of launching an offshore prediction market outside the US. In banking, Robinhood Banking is being rolled out in phases, aiming to become the preferred platform for users' salary payments by offering diversified financial products and services. In investment, the company is preparing Robinhood Ventures and has filed documents with the US SEC, focusing on investing in innovative projects to introduce new growth engines to the platform. Furthermore, regarding tokenized stocks, Robinhood has launched related services in more than 30 countries and expanded to over 400 products. The company plans to promote related trading on the Bitstamp platform and integrate into the DeFi ecosystem. Beyond the US market, Robinhood is planning international expansion, aiming to have markets outside the US and institutional clients contribute more than 50% of its revenue within the next ten years, in order to change its current structure where retail business accounts for too large a share. However, it prefers to expand through organic growth, but does not rule out the possibility of mergers and acquisitions. Internationalization is currently in its early stages.