Will there be a violent bull market this year? | FAQ

1 The problem with the stock market is that there is no confidence, so can it be revived by stimulus?

Of course, confidence is needed for the stock market.

There are two kinds of confidence: long-term confidence and short-term confidence.

The establishment of long-term confidence requires the fundamental guarantee of the system.

I still quote what Mr. Buffett said: The reason why he has long been full of confidence in the US stock market and US companies is because he believes that the United States can always adhere to the market economy and the rule of law.

Whether our country has the institutional guarantees of "market economy" and "rule of law" for long-term confidence is a matter of opinion. I can't judge. So in all my articles about A-shares, I have never said that A-shares will have a long-term bull market like the US stock market.

All the A-share market I mentioned refers to the short-term or at most the medium-term.

And the short-term and medium-term market is completely possible to be stimulated by external conditions (either from the government or from speculative capital) out of the fundamentals of economic development and the system.

If a certain scale of stimulus measures are introduced, short-term confidence can also be stimulated: "Three positive lines change three views" refers to this short-term confidence.

Such examples are always repeated, not only in the history of A-shares, but also in other countries with similar systems to ours (such as Vietnam).

2 How do you view Aleo with zero-knowledge proof?

I think I have shared this project in an article before.

However, after reading some reports on zero-knowledge proof recently, I have some new views on this field.

In general, I still hold a relatively conservative attitude towards the first-layer blockchain. Whether this kind of project is good or not still depends on its core function.

Specific to this project, it is essentially a smart contract platform, but with the characteristics of zero-knowledge proof.

On the contrary, I think there is a category of tools, components or middle layers that specialize in handling zero-knowledge proofs, which seem to have a wider range of uses. Such tools, components or middle layers can be better modularized with existing smart contract blockchains, and are more flexible and focused.

I am not involved in this project.

3 Will there be a violent bull market this year?

Readers often leave messages asking whether there will be a bull market this year or next year, and they also emphasize whether there will be a "violent" bull market.

I don't know either.

But I suggest that as investors, we'd better not have such ideas, and let everything go.

Study hard in the bear market, and make good layout in the downturn. As for when the bull market will come and what will happen after it comes, it's better to have the mentality of "doing our best and leaving it to fate".

In addition, from the perspective of metaphysics: the more we expect something, the less likely it will come. And if what we expect really comes, it is completely a blessing from the previous life, so we can only ask ourselves and not others.

4 How about TON?

The biggest imagination space for TON is to expect to convert Telegram's vast user base into TON's user base. According to relevant data, Telegram has nearly 200 million daily active users. It would be great if 1% of these 200 million users were converted to TON users.

This imagination space is indeed huge.

But I am skeptical of this reasoning.

The reason is simple: what rigid needs or at least 1% of the needs of these seemingly vast users can only be met by TON?

I can't see it at the moment.

Some readers will say payment.

But if it is payment, blockchain technology is not needed, and traditional mobile Internet (WeChat, Alipay) can be used to do it, and the user experience is better. Why must TON be used in this case?

In addition to payment, the other things that can be thought of are probably entertainment, gambling or speculation.

Speaking of entertainment, current mobile Internet games are far superior to blockchain games in terms of user experience, and current blockchain games have not yet developed their own killer scenarios.

And I don’t think gambling and speculation are high-frequency rigid needs of the vast user base.

So I think some of the small applications currently active on TON are just some experimental and popular applications in a small range. It is probably difficult for them to convert Telegram users into TON users on a large scale.