Challenges in Prediction Markets Highlighted by a16z Crypto

On January 25, a16z Crypto released an article discussing the difficulties faced by prediction markets. According to BlockBeats, the article emphasizes that the most challenging aspect is not pricing the future but determining what has actually occurred. One of the major obstacles in the development of prediction markets is the settlement of contracts. Earlier this year, Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by the U.S. military, leading to controversy in the prediction market operated by Polymarket. Polymarket denied that Venezuela was invaded, ruling the 'U.S. invasion of Venezuela' market as false, sparking widespread debate. Polymarket later clarified that the market referred to a U.S. military action aimed at establishing control, and the operation to capture and evacuate Maduro could not be considered an invasion. a16z Crypto noted that prediction markets are facing a complex situation, questioning whether prediction contracts should follow official information (Maduro's victory) or the consensus of credible reports (opposition's victory). In this political drama, Polymarket's dispute resolution mechanism acted as 'judge, jury, and executioner,' with contract settlement decisions being heavily manipulated.