Barclays Predicts Stable U.S. Treasury Bond Issuance Through 2026 Fiscal Year

Barclays Bank's interest rate strategist has projected that the U.S. Treasury will maintain the issuance size of interest-bearing bonds unchanged for the next quarter and throughout the 2026 fiscal year. According to Jin10, analyst Dhiraj Narula noted that this forecast aligns with previous policy guidance, indicating that the issuance size has remained stable for two years since the last increase from February to April 2024. Narula emphasized that the underlying fiscal situation in the United States remains challenging, with an annual deficit nearing $2 trillion putting continuous pressure on the Treasury's debt issuance. While the current expectation is for the issuance size to remain unchanged, Narula cautioned that the Treasury had previously indicated in November that it had "begun preliminary considerations" for potentially increasing auction sizes in the future. The upcoming quarterly refinancing announcement may reveal the latest developments in these expansion plans.