Analyzing Current Bear Market Trends in Comparison to 2022

Looknode posted on X. The current bear market exhibits notable similarities to the downturn experienced in 2022. During the 2021 bull market peak, the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) indicator began to diverge from price movements, signaling a weakening in new capital inflows and increased turnover of holdings. As 2022 progressed, the indicator consistently remained in negative territory, marked by several 'accelerated declines,' reflecting panic selling and concentrated on-chain losses. The true bottom in Q4 2022 did not coincide with the lowest point of the indicator but occurred when prices hit new lows without the indicator reaching deeper negative values, indicating a weakening of selling pressure and a clearing of loss-making holdings. Currently, the market structure mirrors 2022 in two key aspects: the indicator has again entered deep negative territory, and there is a noticeable 'accelerated decline,' with losses being realized more swiftly. Historically, rapid declines in the indicator do not immediately signal a market bottom. However, when extreme negative values are reached and downward momentum weakens, it often suggests the market is nearing an emotional limit. The faster release of losses and more concentrated market structure imply that if prices hit new lows without the NRPL indicator reaching new negative extremes, it could serve as a significant bottom signal.