Bitcoin rebounded to $66,500 after weekend strikes on Iran sparked $300 million in long liquidations, while equities fell and oil surged 13% to multi-month highs.As the Iran conflict enters its third day, BTC is showing relative resilience compared to U.S. equity futures.Bitcoin Recovers From $63K Weekend LowBitcoin briefly dropped to $63,000 following U.S. and Israeli strikes that reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, triggering retaliatory attacks and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.Since then:BTC has climbed more than 5% from the weekend lowTrading near $66,500Up about 1.1% since midnight UTCThe move returns Bitcoin to the mid-range it has held since early February, with recent volatility testing both $70,000 resistance and $62,500 support.$300M Liquidations, But No Panic SellingAccording to trading firm QCP Capital, the escalation triggered approximately $300 million in long liquidations across centralized exchanges.However:The scale was contained relative to prior deleveraging eventsFutures open interest fell just 2% to $93.78 billionFunding rates remain neutral to slightly negativeBitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) remains steady near 58.8%, suggesting markets are cautious but not disorderly.On Deribit, short-term BTC puts trade at an 8%–10% volatility premium over calls, with the $60,000 put remaining the most popular bearish hedge.Oil Surges, Equities SlideThe broader macro reaction has been more pronounced outside crypto:Oil jumped 13% to $82 per barrel, highest since July 2024Gold and silver hit one-month highsS&P 500 futures down 1.1%Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.5%Despite safe-haven flows into metals and pressure on equities, Bitcoin held above $65,000, outperforming risk assets during the session.Altcoins Mirror BTC, DeFi Tokens LeadThe altcoin market largely tracked Bitcoin’s rebound, with several DeFi tokens posting gains:MORPHO up 5% in 24 hoursJUP, AAVE and LDO in positive territoryHYPE surged over 29% on Saturday before modest retracementMeanwhile, WLFI — the DeFi token linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s family — fell 2.5% on Monday and is down more than 44% since mid-January.The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index (DFX) was the only benchmark positive over the past 24 hours, while computing and smart contract platform indices declined modestly.Derivatives Positioning Remains CautiousKey derivatives signals:Open interest: Slight declineFunding rates: Neutral to negativePut premiums elevatedNo surge in volatilityThis suggests traders are hedging downside risk without widespread panic.Market OutlookWith the Iran conflict escalating and oil prices rising, markets are balancing geopolitical risk against positioning that had already been reduced in prior weeks.Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $65,000 level while equities weaken is being viewed as a relative strength signal. However, continued volatility in energy markets and broader macro conditions could shape near-term direction.For now, BTC remains range-bound — resilient, but not yet decisively bullish.
Catherine
